Crypto analytics platform Presto Research this week published its 2026 outlook, projecting Bitcoin (BTC) at $160,000, tokenized assets nearing $490 billion, and confidential decentralized finance (DeFi) climbing past $10 billion as crypto shifts deeper into institutional finance.
The report argued that after a messy but formative 2025, the market is shedding hype-driven growth in favor of cash flow, regulation-ready products, and infrastructure built for large allocators rather than retail mania.
Institutional Maturation to Drive New Highs
In the comprehensive year-ahead report, Presto’s analysts projected that the total value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) and stablecoins will approach half a trillion dollars by the end of 2026.
They see this growth propelled by continued demand for U.S. Treasury bills and credit instruments on blockchain networks, alongside the steady rise of stablecoins for global payments. This trend highlights a shift from speculative trading to practical financial utility.
Central to their price outlook is a $160,000 target for Bitcoin. This projection relies on a framework evaluating the cryptocurrency’s on-chain adoption rate against potential investor caution surrounding future quantum computing challenges.
The experts applied what they call a “30% quantum haircut” to account for investor uncertainty around the need for future-proof encryption upgrades.
“When a risk that was once a vague, distant ‘someday’ suddenly gets pulled forward in the collective conversation, investor psychology can shift,” the report cautioned, pointing to quantum readiness as a new variable in valuation.
Separately, the market watchers forecasted a major advance for private financial activity on blockchain, forecasting confidential DeFi tools to grow to hold $10 billion in assets as regulatory and institutional demand for discretion increases.
Underlying the Predictions: A Market Growing Up
Presto’s review of 2025 highlighted a year of contradictions: landmark policy wins like the passing of the GENIUS Act and major public listings were offset by tight monetary policy that limited broad price gains.
The firm noted that while fundamentals like protocol revenue became a central talking point, market performance often ignored them, instead favoring narrative and liquidity dynamics.
This environment, Presto’s analysts argued, is set to evolve. Their expectation for 2026 is that financialization will deepen, with traditional finance giants expanding crypto custody and trading services. Furthermore, they estimated that the rise of AI agents capable of executing microtransactions, facilitated by protocols like Coinbase’s x402, could potentially generate well over 300 million transactions monthly, turning experimental demos into functional businesses.
A final, telling projection is that “median altcoin funding rate ≤ 0% becomes a norm.” This shift from perpetual optimism to a default cost for holding most speculative tokens would be a profound change. “Funding is finally pricing in reality,” the report concluded, suggesting a harsh but necessary reckoning for assets without sustainable demand.
According to Presto, these combined forces point to a market slowly outgrowing its volatile past, where measurable value creation and risk management will start to outweigh pure speculation in the new year.
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