Bitcoin’s price has been on an evident downfall for over two months, ever since it peaked above $126,000 in early October, losing roughly 30% of its value since then to $88,000 as of now.
Analysts are now debating whether the bear market has started or if this is yet another typical correction during bull cycles. Ali Martinez believes BTC would need to reclaim one key level to reignite its bull phase.
$101,840 to Be Reclaimed
In a recent post on X, the analyst with over 160,000 followers claimed that the primary cryptocurrency needs to surge past its short-term holder realized price to turn bullish. According to his data, that level is situated close to $102,000, which would require a 15-6% increase from the current levels.
Merlijn The Trader also weighed in on BTC’s price performance as of late, but focused on another technical tool – the Relative Strength Index. The metric has gone deep below 30, which is widely considered an oversold territory, and has stayed there for roughly three weeks.
The analyst claimed that the RSI can stay oversold or overbought for a while when the market’s trending, which has been the case now. He noted that in such specific scenarios, BTC trades sideways for 20-25 days, and the asset has now passed the 20-day mark. Consequently, he predicted that this lag is about to end and bitcoin’s next move will be an “explosive bounce.”
BITCOIN RSI JUST HIT THE SWEET SPOT.
Every time RSI dips below 30: Sideways grind into explosive bounce.
The average lag: ~25 days.We’re on day 20.
History says upside is next.You’re either early…
Or you’re late. pic.twitter.com/EgZNR2QqML— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) December 19, 2025
The Downside
It’s not all rainbows and sunshine, though. Further data from Martinez shows that the 1-year change in the average BTC whale holdings is down by more than 160,000 units. He explained that these large market participants have been net sellers for the past year, which “usually shows up before or during deeper corrections, not after bottoms.”
The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen a substantial investor exodus lately, with nearly $500 million leaving the funds in the past week alone. Martinez also warned that if BTC is to lose the $83,300 support, it risks dropping all the way down to $63,000. For now, though, that line of defense has managed to hold the asset’s price corrections.
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