Gold and silver surged more than 2% on Monday as unexpected progress in US-Iran peace talks sent oil prices lower. However, Bitcoin struggled, falling to the $76,000 zone.
According to Reuters, Iranian negotiators left talks with Qatari mediators on Sunday, but a revised peace proposal is circulating.
Tehran says its seven-step plan could now be implemented within two days, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz if Washington ends its blockade of Iranian ports.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described consultations as “very intensive.”
However, Trump rejected an earlier proposal, and Iranian sources still consider renewed US strikes more likely than an agreement.
Why Falling Oil Could Push Gold and Silver Higher
Oil fell more than 6% following the diplomatic developments. Gold rebounded after its worst October since 2008, while silver reclaimed $50.
One market estimate valued an earlier part of gold’s rebound at $428 billion in paper gains, rather than fresh investment.
The moves suggest oil is becoming a major short-term driver of precious metals.
Cheaper energy reduces inflation fears, potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Lower expected rates make gold more attractive because investors sacrifice less interest income by holding it. Silver benefits from similar conditions.
A lasting Iran deal could therefore support a broader recovery in both metals, provided oil keeps falling and rate-hike expectations weaken.
However, the relationship is not guaranteed. Bond yields and dollar movements remain important.
The market still assigns a 77% probability to a December Fed hike.
Gold advocate Peter Schiff has separately accused Trump of manipulating oil prices, without providing evidence.
Why Bitcoin Is Missing the Rally
Bitcoin has shown little lasting response to previous peace signals. It is also recovering from the $6.3 billion Binance hack, followed by $643 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows.
Glassnode estimates that ETF and corporate Bitcoin buyers entered at average prices around $80,000 to $81,500.
With Bitcoin below that range, many face unrealized losses, adding pressure to an already nervous market.
What Investors Should Watch Next
- Iran negotiations: A peace deal could push oil lower, while renewed military strikes could reverse the move.
- Tuesday’s US midterm elections: The results could influence Washington’s approach to Iran.
- Friday’s US jobs report: Strong hiring could reinforce Fed rate-hike expectations, threatening the metals recovery.
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