Peter Schiff says 479 US stocks hit 52-week lows against just 60 highs, an eight-to-one gap. The economist and gold advocate argues most stocks are in a bear market.
Schiff says President Donald Trump takes credit for a booming market. The S&P 500 has returned about 14% in 2026, per Goldman Sachs, so the question is who drives it.
Does the Data Back Schiff’s Bear Market Call?
Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider put the median S&P 500 stock 16% below its 52-week high in a September note.
Meanwhile, AI shares are holding the index up, the bank said. Breadth, meaning how widely gains are shared, sits at its weakest since the dot-com bubble.
Likewise, earnings are concentrated. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, flagged Wall Street’s concentrated growth in August. She said Nvidia and memory chipmaker Micron will drive a third of 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth.
Still, a 52-week low is not a 20% decline, the usual threshold for a bear market. With the median S&P 500 stock 16% below its high, fewer than half the index’s members have crossed that line. Schiff’s tally counts new lows across US stocks, not the depth of losses.
What Happens if AI Leaders Stumble?
However, Goldman sees an alternate path. Snider wrote that lagging stocks could catch up if economic uncertainty eases.
Rates complicate that outlook. US inflation hit 3.7% in September, above the 3.6% forecast, raising the odds of another Federal Reserve hike. The Fed meets October 27 and 28.
At the same time, Goldman said higher rates and AI profit doubts pulled the index’s forward earnings multiple to 19 times from 22. That multiple measures how much investors pay per dollar of expected profit.
The split matters for index investors. A market-cap-weighted fund gives the largest companies the biggest weight. Such a fund leans on AI shares while the typical holding trails its peak.
Whether laggards catch up or leaders slip will decide how the index and typical stock converge.
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