Crypto analyst Ben Cowen, says the Nasdaq Composite has erased all post-midterm gains. He says a slide to its summer lows could drag Bitcoin (BTC) to $58,000.
That price sits near Bitcoin’s June low, the weakest point of 2026, so a retest would erase its entire rebound.
Does Ben Cowen’s 2018 Parallel Hold Up?
Cowen points to 2018, when the S&P 500 gained 2.1% the day after the midterms. However, three events then drove stocks lower into December, he says.
First, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said in October 2018 that rates sat far from the neutral level. CNBC tied that remark to the S&P 500’s worst month since 2011.
Meanwhile, Cowen says markets now price two more rate hikes despite the tech selloff.
Second, Caterpillar, 3M, and Ford flagged tariff-linked cost pressure that October, Bloomberg reported.
Therefore, Cowen argues, today’s tariffs add to inflation and keep the Fed hawkish.
Third, Cowen says tech stocks reversed in late 2018 as regulators scrutinized large platforms. He argues AI fears now play that role.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed about 1,800 points lower, ABC reported. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq entered correction territory, a drop of 10% or more from its peak.
Can Bitcoin Avoid Following the Nasdaq?
Cowen then linked the two markets in a follow-up post.
“If the NASDAQ can go back to the summer lows, then so can Bitcoin.”
Cowen wrote on X.
Bitcoin has followed big tech lower before. An earlier Big Tech selloff pulled it toward $62,000 in June.
In contrast, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson calls any midterm dip a buying chance, an earlier Q4 report noted.
However, the analogy could break if the Fed softens. Powell shifted to a dovish tone in late November 2018.
BlackRock managing director Jeffrey Rosenberg says Fed Chair Kevin Warsh links tighter financial conditions to AI. The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% last week.
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