Bitcoin slid below $81,000 on Oct. 8, with an intraday low near $80,800, even as traders expect the Fed to hold in October.
The September FOMC minutes, released Oct. 7, said most participants viewed another rate increase by year-end as probable and left decisions dependent on data.
December remains an expectation inferred from the policy path, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller's Oct. 8 remarks showed how far that path extends.
A pause delays the next hike
Waller cited futures pricing as of Oct. 7 that assigned an 85% chance to at least one hike by December. The same pricing put nearly 80% on at least two hikes by March 2027 and 33% on three or more.
The probabilities are cumulative and market-implied, with Waller adding that further hikes are probable if data evolve as expected and that they can skip meetings. An October hold moves the next increase later on the calendar while the path into 2027 stays steep.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.305%, and the 2-year was at 4.821% on Oct. 8, with Brent crude at $104.87. Oil keeps inflation risk alive, and higher yields keep the cost of capital elevated for risk assets even if the Fed skips a meeting.
Glassnode's Oct. 7 report found combined spot-exchange and US Bitcoin spot ETF volume near $6.8 billion a day, below roughly 90% of observations since January 2024. Estimated new money from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate treasury buying totaled $4.9 billion, while realized cap rose $12.8 billion over 30 days, less than 40% of the total.
The prior move higher leaned on existing capital repricing coins, and the buying depth to absorb selling was shallow.
As of press time, CoinGlass registered over $1 billion in liquidations for the past 24 hours, with $930 million tied to longs.
Bitcoin's $81,000 zone gave way
A day earlier, Glassnode flagged a modeled cluster of long liquidations between $81,700 and $83,300, along with large Binance bids around $81,000 to $81,250.
The modeled zones show where positioning sat, and the low shows that price crossed them. Liquidations amplified the move, and macro forces as the initiating cause is a supported interpretation. Proving that sequence would take intraday spot-flow and liquidation data.
If buyers rebuild above the $85,500 reclaim threshold with higher spot volume, Bitcoin meets a sell-order concentration at $86,500 to $86,750.
Beyond it sits Glassnode's largest one-year cluster of liquidations above price, from $87,100 to $95,900 and heaviest near $92,000, where a reclaim could force short covering and turn the pause into a catalyst.
If buyers fail to rebuild, Glassnode's next modeled liquidation cluster sits near $75,000, a reference level for the downside. The next macro tests are September CPI on Oct. 14, the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting, and the Dec. 8-9 meeting.
An October pause delays the next hike, and Bitcoin has to hold its structure through CPI and two Fed meetings on a thin base of buyers.
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