Ripple’s XRP has now spent 70 days below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level that has acted as a launch point in past cycles.
Analysts tracking the asset say this phase often ends with a breakout. Previous patterns show a similar setup before XRP made large price moves.
Pattern Repeats Across Multiple Cycles
Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto has outlined this recurring behavior across three previous cycles. In 2017, XRP traded below the 50-week SMA for 70 days and then climbed by over 200%. In 2021, a 49-day drop under the same line led to a 70% gain. Then in 2024, after 84 days below, XRP rose by over 850%.
Remarkably, the token has now repeated the 70-day period under the SMA, with no breakout confirmed yet. The chart from Steph Is Crypto shows price compression under the moving average, followed by upside expansion in past examples. The same setup appears to be forming now. He commented,
“Right now, XRP is sitting inside the same historical window that previously marked the end of downside and the start of expansion.”
Moreover, XRP’s current 2025 chart is also drawing comparisons to earlier setups from 2016 and 2024. In both years, the price followed a three-wave correction labeled A-B-C. The structure lasted 120 to 150 days and ended in a breakout. The 2025 chart shows the same form, now reaching 150 days.
This phase has been marked by slow, sideways action and low volume. The structure aligns with what was seen before earlier rallies. Steph Is Crypto noted,
“Nothing about this looks exciting. And that’s usually what XRP looks like right before it moves.”
Fractal Model Offers Levels and Timing
Analyst Egrag Crypto has updated his fractal model, which he says currently tracks XRP’s behavior with around 82% accuracy. They shared a range of potential price levels if the model holds: $3.20, $8.00, $15–16, and $20–27. These are tied to how XRP continues to follow the same path.
They added that a break below $1.60 would weaken the model. A move under $1.30 would invalidate it. The fractal is being treated as a live model, not a confirmed forecast. The time range for possible expansion is June to October 2026.
Near-Term Action and Risk Factors
XRP is priced at $1.86 at press time, down 2% in the past 24 hours and 1% over the last week. Analyst CryptoWZRD said the price needs to stay above $1.98 to remain in bullish territory. They also mentioned support at $1.82 and resistance near $2.75.
On the caution side, analyst Ali Martinez raised concerns about a possible short-term correction, warning that XRP could drop by over 55% if certain levels fail. He pointed to technical signs that could open a path toward $0.80, especially if rejection continues near key resistance.
In addition, XRP inflows to centralized exchanges have been rising, as previously reported by CryptoPotato. Binance continues to account for the largest share of XRP volume. Higher exchange inflows are often seen as a sign that traders are preparing to sell.
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