Ripple’s native cross-border token is approaching a technical resistance zone that may determine its short-term direction. After forming a textbook corrective structure, analysts are focusing on the $2.26 price area. If the asset fails to move above this level, a deeper move to the downside could follow.
Technical Pattern Points to $2.26 as Key Level
According to crypto analyst CasiTrades, XRP is currently forming a textbook A-B-C corrective pattern. The A wave reached the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $2.23. This was followed by a pullback to $2.11, completing the B wave. The pattern now appears to be entering Wave C.
CasiTrades explained,
“If this truly is a Wave 2 correction, we should see price reject near the .618 retracement around ~$2.26.”
A clean rejection from this level could signal the start of a move lower. This would place $2.11 and $2.03 as the next supports, with the projected Wave 3 targeting $1.65. The analyst also noted, “A Wave 2 cannot make a new local high above $2.41,” meaning any move above that level would break the bearish setup.
At press time, XRP is trading at $2.10, with a 24-hour volume of over $4 billion, according to CoinGecko. It has fallen 2% in the past 24 hours and almost 1% over the last 7 days.
Technical indicators show that the RSI is holding near 61. This suggests room for further price movement before reaching overbought conditions. With volume remaining high, traders are waiting to see if XRP will approach and react to the $2.26 level. That response could define the near-term trend.
Bearish Targets and Alternate Scenarios
EGRAG CRYPTO also addressed the potential downside. They stated,
“If we are sitting in a similar structural position to previous cycles… we could still experience: ~31% drawdown, ~47% drawdown.”
These projections place possible low targets in the $1.40–$1.20 zone. However, EGRAG added,
“Long term, nothing is bearish in XRP’s fundamentals or structure.”
Moreover, a separate weekly chart from Ali Martinez shows a recent sell signal. This follows a long-standing buy signal from earlier in the year.
Despite the short-term caution, institutional activity remains present. Ripple has received preliminary approval for an e-money license in Luxembourg and is also applying for a Crypto Asset Service Provider license under MiCA rules in the EU.
@Ripple is pursuing an EMI license in Luxembourg as part of its MiCA strategy to expand regulated payments across the EU.
The process is ongoing and would allow Ripple to offer services across the EEA once approved. pic.twitter.com/J77Uohox47
— CryptoPotato Official (@Crypto_Potato) January 14, 2026
Exchange-traded funds tied to XRP recorded over $10 million in net inflows on January 14, bringing total inflows to around $1.26 billion (per SoSoValue data). Meanwhile, XRP’s exchange supply has dropped below 2 billion tokens, down from more than 4 billion in late 2025.
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