Bitcoin (BTC) slipped back below $80,000 after testing the level again, with XWIN Japan pointing to profit-taking by existing holders as a major barrier on August 26.
The next move may depend less on another brief test of $80,000 and more on whether fresh demand can absorb units being sold by investors sitting on gains.
Profit-Taking Puts BTC’s $80K Test Under Pressure
XWIN Japan noted that nearly every Bitcoin investor group has returned to profit as the cryptocurrency approached $80,000. Its unrealized PnL reading stood at 21.1 for long-term holders, 13.4 for short-term holders, 13.9 for investors holding for one day to one month, and 5.3 for the newest buyers. That creates a familiar problem during a fast recovery: more profitable holders have a reason to sell.
The post also pointed to the SOPR Ratio, which compares profit-taking by long-term holders with that of short-term holders. The ratio briefly reached 1.4 as BTC neared $80,000, suggesting long-term holders were realizing profits at a higher relative rate. However, it has since fallen to 0.93, meaning short-term holders are now showing stronger realized performance relative to long-term holders.
As per XWIN, any sustained breakout above the $80,000 mark, coupled with rising ETF and spot demand, might be one way through which Bitcoin can reach the $88,000-$90,000 price point. However, it pointed out that the $75,000-$76,000 mark is the level to pay attention to if prices decline further. Failure at this level may make it difficult for the short-term holders to earn a profit, which, in XWIN’s opinion, could speed up the correction.
“The key question is not whether Bitcoin can briefly touch $80,000, but whether new demand can absorb selling from profitable holders,” the research firm concluded.
Momentum Has Cooled After a Huge Weekly Move
Another analyst, BorisD, also pointed to fading buying pressure at higher prices, noting that Binance’s volume delta, which tracks the difference between aggressive buying and selling, fell from $1.17 during Bitcoin’s move from $63,000 to $70,000 to about $350 million near $80,000.
The other major exchanges showed much flatter readings. BorisD argued that the market may need a period of consolidation before attempting another breakout. But the backdrop remains more supportive than it was a week ago.
As CryptoPotato reported, BTC climbed from below $65,000 on August 19 to above $81,000, helped by Treasury buyback plans, renewed ETF demand and more than $4 billion in short liquidations.
Nearly $2 billion entered US spot Bitcoin ETFs over five days, while Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt were increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
Bitcoin was trading around $79,000 at the time of writing, down 2% over 24 hours but still up 23% in the last seven days and 21% over the month, even after a year that has left it down close to 28% and about 37% below its all-time high of over $126,000, set last October.
The post Bitcoin Could Hit $90K – But This Major Test Comes First, Analysts Say appeared first on CryptoPotato.
