Bitcoin (BTC) may have already completed its bear market bottom, despite renewed selling that pushed the OG cryptocurrency toward $75,000 this week.
This is according to trader KillaXBT, who believes market structure carries more weight than the seasonal pattern that has often placed BTC’s cycle lows in the fourth quarter.
Market Structure Over Bitcoin’s Usual Q4 Pattern
In a post on X, Killa challenged the idea that Bitcoin still needs to establish another low before the current cycle can turn.
“I want to show why I believe that may not be the case,” wrote the trader. “The BTC bottom is already in, and what we’re likely seeing now is the market derisking as legacy markets fall off a cliff, with crypto simply following the correlation.”
According to them, regardless of seasonality, the flagship cryptocurrency has always formed three “significant lows” in each cycle. They pointed to a bottom formed in 2023, which, in their opinion, was very similar to what the market has been through this year, with another two lows coming very close to each other.
The market watcher suggested that while structurally the traditional corrective bottom had been formed, in terms of seasonality it hadn’t.
“I’m implying that, structurally, the market has bottomed and the bear market is over. So either you have more faith in market structure or in seasonality,” they explained.
Furthermore, the trader stated that they didn’t think BTC would form a new low in the remaining time before the year ends since such a decline wouldn’t fit the typical cycle structure.
Market Sell-Off Puts the Bottom Call to the Test
Looking at the markets, the latest price action could give skeptics something to point to. At the time of writing, BTC was trading just above $76,000.
Recall that yesterday, it briefly went near $81,000 after recovering from a 7-week low of $75,600 before closing below $76,000 as US stocks weakened, with more than $560 million in positions liquidated in under an hour, most of those losses being borne by traders who had bet on higher prices.
The current level represents a drop of over 5% in 24 hours and a more than 3% dip in one week, and the asset has been hit just as hard across longer timeframes, showing a 10% plunge in the past 30 days, which has helped keep it almost 28% lower than where it was 12 months ago and 39% below the $126,000 all-time high it recorded in October last year.
Analyst Ash Crypto attributed the wider market sell-off to concerns about proposed restrictions on advanced AI development and renewed fears of escalation in the Iran conflict. For the immediate outlook, he identified the 50-week moving average near $75,500 as a level BTC needs to hold and a move back above $80,000 needed to improve market momentum.
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