Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat on Christmas amidst cautious sentiment and reduced institutional participation. Market experts predict pain ahead.
In fact, prominent crypto analyst Doctor Profit believes the asset could bottom out in September-October 2026.
Long Bear Market for Bitcoin
In a recent tweet, he explained that he has moved all remaining USDT back into the banking system and currently holds no liquid crypto assets, while citing the ongoing bear market as the reason.
Doctor Profit said that the current market conditions do not warrant staying liquid in crypto, and he believes the bear phase will continue for a long period. He also disclosed his largest positions, including a BTC short from the $115,000-$125,000 range and a medium-sized BTC holding purchased around 85,000. He intends to ride a potential short-term upswing toward $107,000 before the next downward leg in February-March.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $89,259 after a 2% daily gain. While the asset did show some short-term upward movement, it continues to hover below crucial resistance levels. According to CryptoQuant, $100,000 is a major short-term resistance for BTC, largely due to the concentration of cost bases among recent whale investors and Binance users.
New whales, who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, have an average cost basis of roughly $100,500. This makes it a critical break-even zone where profit-taking or fresh accumulation could determine the near-term price trend. On the other hand, Binance spot users average around $56,000, providing a significant support level in a potential extended bear phase.
Long-term whales with holdings over 155 days have an average cost basis of around $40,000, which means that they remain significantly profitable and are likely contributing to recent profit-taking activity.
$40K Drop Risk
Supporting the broader bearish narrative, analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted Bitcoin’s behavior around the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). He explained that in past cycles, losing this level has typically led to an average decline of about 54%.
When applied to current prices, such a move would mean a potential drop toward $40,000. The analyst did not call for an immediate selloff, but did warn that failure to reclaim this level could expose the crypto asset to extended downside pressure.
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