Gold’s recent decline has extended into its worst losing streak in more than a century, last seen in February 1920. Prices have retreated over 25% from January highs. It even dipped briefly to $4,090 before staging a partial recovery to about $4,455 midway through the week.
Despite speculation that capital was rotating from gold into BTC, new data suggests weakness in both assets.
Bitcoin Fails to Capture Gold’s Exit
Crypto analyst Darkfost has flagged early signals that challenge the growing narrative of capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin. After a strong yearly run, gold has entered a correction phase, as it slipped below its 180-day moving average amid pressure from margin calls and forced liquidations. At the same time, Bitcoin has stabilized following recent volatility but continues to trade below its own 180-day moving average, currently near $89,700.
According to the framework outlined in the analysis, a clear rotation signal depends on divergence between the two assets. Specifically, Bitcoin needs to reclaim its 180-day trend while gold remains below it. Instead, both assets are now aligned below this crucial threshold, producing what is categorized as a negative signal.
This suggests that, rather than capital flowing decisively from gold into Bitcoin, both markets are experiencing parallel weakness or consolidation. The model, which is designed as a simplified indicator of broader trend dynamics, indicates that any emerging capital rotation is either not present or lacks the strength needed to meaningfully affect Bitcoin’s price direction at this point.
The analyst also warned that such interpretations rely on extrapolation, as it remains difficult to verify whether capital exiting gold positions is actively being reallocated into Bitcoin markets with a measurable impact.
Diverging Views Emerge
That said, not all market participants are dismissing the rotation narrative entirely. Some argue that what appears muted now could evolve into a far larger structural change over time. One such view indicates that markets may be underestimating the scale of a potential transition, and if capital eventually moves from gold into Bitcoin, it could become one of the largest reallocations in history.
Under this scenario, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory could extend significantly higher, and projections point toward levels as high as $800,000 by the end of the decade.
A similar perspective was previously shared by Bitwise, which highlighted the outsized effect that even limited capital rotation from gold could have on Bitcoin. Back in October 2025, the firm estimated that diverting 3% to 4% of gold’s market could potentially double BTC’s valuation, while a 2% shift alone may be enough to lift prices above $161,000.
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