Bitcoin, crypto, and the overall financial system enter one of the busiest macro weeks of the year with the Federal Reserve, fresh inflation and GDP data, and a wave of Big Tech earnings all arriving within days.
With BTC already struggling to maintain above the key $80,000 support, the upcoming releases could determine whether the latest correction deepens or buyers finally regain control.
Fed, Inflation, and GDP
The analysts at the Kobeissi Letter noted that the major week begins with the September New Home Sales on Tuesday, before attention shifts firmly to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank will announce its rate decision on October 28, followed by the usual press conference.
Nearly all economists surveyed by Reuters expected no changes, with the Fed leaving the federal funds target at 3.75%-4.00%. However, expectations for another hike in December have increased noticeably over the past few weeks, especially after the release of the CPI and PPI readings for September.
Unless there’s a major surprise and a fresh hike on Wednesday, the decision itself may matter less for crypto than the Fed’s guidance. A more dovish tone regarding future tightening could pressure Treasury yields and the dollar while improving appetite for risk assets such as BTC. Conversely, renewed warnings about persistent inflation or further rate hikes could add more pressure.
Thursday could be an even bigger day as the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the advance estimate of Q3 US GDP alongside September Personal Income and Outlays, which contains the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge.
Markets currently expect economic growth to remain strong while inflation stays elevated. That combination would reinforce the argument that the Fed has room to maintain restrictive policy, potentially creating another headwind for BTC and crypto.
Big Tech Earnings
The Kobeissi Letter explained that roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings this week, with Microsoft and Alphabet taking center stage on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Intel on Thursday. This matters for the crypto market because BTC has increasingly traded alongside broader risk sentiment, particularly during sharp moves in tech stocks.
Investors will be watching whether massive AI spending is translating into sufficient growth at Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon after recent concerns surrounding technology valuations weighed heavily on equities.
Bitcoin has suffered in the past week, especially since the rejection at $85,000 last Wednesday. The asset plummeted to a five-week low on Saturday at $79,100 and now fights to stay above $80,000. The spot BTC ETFs were in the green last week, but that couldn’t really help the underlying asset’s price recover.
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