Digital assets edged higher this week after US President Donald Trump indicated the war with Iran may be approaching an end, despite later adopting a more aggressive tone online. Bitcoin climbed above $71,000 briefly after surging by over 4%.
Data suggests potential accumulation as futures traders continue building short positions.
Bitcoin Supply Tightens
According to the latest analysis by Binance Research, on-chain data indicate possible spot accumulation this week, even as short positions remain high in the futures market. While a reversal has not yet been confirmed, current conditions suggest a shift may be developing.
The firm observed that roughly 29,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges while Bitcoin traded in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. This contrasts with the earlier decline from $97,000 to $62,000, when rising exchange balances indicated stronger sell pressure. Over the past six months, however, the relationship between exchange balances and prices has weakened, and lower liquidity on trading venues may amplify future price movements.
At the same time, stablecoin inflows to exchanges have risen about 80% from roughly $2 billion since March. This points to renewed liquidity entering the market and suggests that capital may be actively deployed to support Bitcoin accumulation.
Despite these developments, Bitcoin spot trading volume remains near multi-year lows, amid weaker demand and thinner order books. This pattern may reflect accumulation occurring off-exchange through OTC channels, which is consistent with recently reported sharp outflows from OTC desk balances. In derivatives markets, open interest has risen about 18% since the end of February after falling below $30 billion, while funding rates remain low to negative. This means that much of the activity is driven by short positions.
Market Stress Signals Emerge
On-chain data shared by Amr Taha points to conditions that have previously appeared during periods of market stress. In a recent update, the analyst said the Binance Bitcoin derivatives market index has fallen to roughly 0.35. This level is similar to readings recorded in July and August 2024 and is lower than the 0.43 level seen in April 2025.
Historically, levels in this range have occurred near major market lows, which were later followed by strong price recoveries. Taha also posted a chart showing a decline in the value of Bitcoin held by short-term investors. According to the data, the market capitalization of these holdings has dropped to about $390 billion, compared with roughly $437 billion recorded on April 7, 2025.
The analyst said large declines in this metric have often preceded capitulation among short-term holders. A similar drop took place on April 8, 2025, when intense selling pushed the leading crypto asset toward $78,000 before it later surged above $108,000.
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