XRP is trading at $1.4555 on March 20, holding just below the $1.5119 resistance level that capped its mid-month rally. A sudden surge in new addresses — the highest count in over a month — is now adding a demand signal at exactly the point the price needs it most.
The timing matters. The last time on-chain activity spiked in a comparable way, in early February and again around February 10, XRP was approaching a local inflection point. Whether this week’s address surge translates into sustained buying pressure is the question the price chart will answer in the next few sessions.
XRP New Addresses Spike 354%
XRP’s number of new addresses jumped to approximately 12,000 on March 20, according to Glassnode data. That represents a roughly 354% increase from the baseline of 2,500–3,500 new addresses per day that defined most of late February and early March.
New address creation measures how many wallets are being opened for the first time. A spike of this magnitude indicates fresh participants entering the network, not just existing holders moving funds. This is a demand-side signal rather than a supply-side one.
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The historical pattern visible in the chart supports a cautious interpretation. The two previous spikes of similar scale — approximately 16,000 addresses on January 31 and 15,000 on February 10 — both occurred at points of price volatility rather than clean breakouts. The January 31 spike preceded a sharp price decline.
The February 10 spike coincided with a brief recovery attempt. Neither resulted in a sustained trend shift on its own. However, the March 20 spike occurs after a period of price consolidation between $1.33 and $1.46, during which the underlying structure has tightened.
Fresh entrants at this level could absorb existing sell-side supply and build the foundation for an upside attempt.
Whales Are Buying XRP
The new address surge is a bullish signal, but the whale transaction data from Santiment offers an important counterpoint about sequence. Transactions in the 10 million to 100 million XRP range peaked around March 15 at approximately 11.27 billion in the chart’s right-side scale, aligning almost exactly with XRP’s local high near $1.58.
Since that peak, whale activity has declined to roughly 11.09 billion as of March 19, while XRP’s price pulled back to $1.463. This sequence — whale accumulation preceding price, then whale activity cooling as price falls — is a classic distribution signal. It suggests the March 15 rally was, at least partially, driven by large holders moving XRP rather than fresh retail demand.
The March 20 new address spike, therefore, represents a potential handoff. If retail entrants are now entering the market at the $1.43–$1.46 range, they could absorb the supply that whales distributed near $1.55–$1.58.
That handoff dynamic — large holders selling into retail strength — is only constructive for price if the new buyers sustain their positions rather than exit quickly. Whether the new address surge represents conviction buying or short-term speculation will become clear if XRP tests $1.5119 in the coming days.
XRP Price Fails To Close Above $1.50
On the daily chart, XRP has been slowly recovering from the February 5 crash wick that touched $1.21. Since then, the token has built a series of higher lows, making $1.43 the most recent near-term support level.
At $1.45, XRP sits between the support at $1.43 and the next significant resistance at $1.51. A daily close above $1.5119 would reopen the path to $1.58, the level reached briefly on March 15 before the rejection. Above $1.58, $1.70 becomes the next target — a level XRP has not revisited since early February.
The critical risk sits below $1.33. A move through that support would indicate that the February 5 recovery structure has failed, and the February 5 wick low at $1.21 would then represent the last meaningful floor.
The 354% new address spike and the convergence of fresh retail demand with current price levels provide a short-term demand argument. However, the whale data shows that XRP has already been through one failed attempt at $1.58.
A second attempt will require the new entrants identified in the Glassnode data to hold their positions, not just open wallets. If they do, $1.51 breaks. If they don’t, XRP is likely to revisit the $1.43 support before making another run.
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