US and Israeli military strikes in Iran triggered a $6.5 million loss for one cryptocurrency prediction market trader.
Meanwhile, the attacks generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit for others.
Iran Bombing Fuels Six Figure gains and $6 Million Loss on Polymarket
The financial fallout on the decentralized platform Polymarket underscores the rapid capital shifts tied to geopolitical betting.
Blockchain analysis reveals that a single trader, operating under the pseudonym anoin123, suffered a total wipeout of more than $6.4 million.
The trader had systematically placed massive wagers, fading the likelihood that President Donald Trump would authorize direct military intervention against the Islamic Republic.
When munitions hit Tehran and other Iranian cities, those contracts became worthless.
Conversely, the military escalation generated profits for a handful of persistent Polymarket users. A trader known as Vivaldi007, who began buying shares on February 8, anticipating a joint attack, realized a total profit of $385,000.
Notably, the trader had absorbed losses on earlier contracts as previous target dates passed without incident before capitalizing on Saturday’s strikes.
Meanwhile, the most closely scrutinized transaction involves a cryptocurrency wallet dubbed “Roeyha2026.”
According to the blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, the wallet was funded 11 hours before the bombing campaign commenced. The anonymous user wagered $50,000 that a US strike on Iran would occur before March 1.
That position netted nearly $100,000, igniting debate among market analysts over the potential use of classified military intelligence for insider trading.
These betting volumes arrive as federal regulatory agencies shift their approach to prediction markets. Over the past year, the Trump administration has fostered a pro-crypto environment, allowing these platforms to thrive.
However, the commodification of global conflicts and the specter of defense insiders profiting off military action have alarmed federal lawmakers.
As a result, US lawmakers like Senator Chris Murphy are drafting legislative frameworks to curb these decentralized betting platforms.
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