Intel (INTC) stock fell 29% on Friday after guiding below estimates, erasing about $11 billion from the U.S. government’s stake. The hit lands on a holding President Donald Trump has publicly credited with making America billions.
Intel closed Friday at $65.76, according to TradingView. However, at an average cost of $20.47 per share, the government’s stake still shows a gain near $20 billion.
Why Did Intel Stock Fall After Beating Estimates?
CNBC reports it was Intel’s worst session since 1974, after a gain of about 150% this year. Still, the stock is up 74% year to date.
Intel topped profit estimates for the quarter, yet sales landed slightly light and the fourth-quarter outlook disappointed.
Weak personal computer (PC) demand and high memory chip prices dragged results. Intel expects the PC slump to last into next year.
Supply problems held back the server business. An October explosion at an Israeli chip plant hit the data center segment.
However, data center and artificial intelligence (AI) sales reached $7.3 billion, up nearly 80% from a year earlier.
Is the Government’s Intel Stake Still Paying Off?
Trump posted an AI-generated Intel trading image showing a climb from $20 to $95. Friday’s close sits roughly $29 below the $95 in that image.
New Street upgraded Intel to buy. However, Bank of America, Roth Capital Partners, and Seaport Research Partners downgraded it to neutral.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh calls the sell-off excessive and expects server capacity to arrive in the second half of 2027.
Vinh says the market should value Intel on 2030 numbers, when he expects the foundry (contract chipmaking) unit to contribute.
Seaport Research Partners analyst Jay Goldberg, in contrast, expects flat trading until Intel fixes its capacity problems. He says Intel overbuilt PC chips during the downturn and underbuilt server chips for rising demand.
Neither analyst treats government ownership as a reason to buy by itself.
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan expects industry server processor units to grow 30% in both 2026 and 2027. He said more supply would push that figure higher.
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