ExxonMobil’s senior vice president has warned that oil inventory tightness will reach critical levels within weeks, setting the stage for a sharp price surge unless physical supply rebounds soon.
Neil Chapman, the company’s senior vice president, told a Bernstein investor conference that markets sit only weeks away from rarely seen stockpile levels. He projected Brent crude could spike to $150 or $160 per barrel.
Oil Inventory Tightness Hits Critical Stage
Observed global oil inventories fell by roughly 246 million barrels during March and April, according to the International Energy Agency.
The pace of drawdown has accelerated since the Strait of Hormuz disruption began.
Cumulative supply losses tied to the Hormuz shipping disruption could exceed one billion barrels by month-end. Tehran’s closure of the chokepoint has cut off roughly a fifth of world oil flows.
Independent analysts argue that commercial oil inventories are weaker than headline data suggests.
Continued Strategic Petroleum Reserve sales have flattered the topline figures. Tanks and pipelines tied to private buyers have thinned out at a faster pace.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and government stockpile sales have partially absorbed the shock.
Those buffers shrink quickly when commercial supplies also fall. Energy investors have already begun reweighting toward oil stocks worth watching as supply visibility deteriorates.
$150 Brent Scenario Gains Traction
Chapman framed the timeline as two or three weeks before inventory shortages become disruptive.
ExxonMobil’s internal supply models point to Brent crude prices near the $150 mark once physical buyers compete for scarce cargoes.
“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” Chapman told CNBC.
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The Exxon view aligns with growing concern from independent energy analysts. Several traders have argued on that futures markets are understating physical-market tightness.
They cite widening spreads in crude grades and refined product margins.
“We are ~9 million bbls away from hitting a storage level that’s the equivalent of living paycheck to paycheck for gasoline and distillate…And we are going into peak summer demand season + hurricane…We are living on the edge now. Product pipeline + inventory needed to move products around. 2-3 weeks to exhaust the 9 million bbls, mid-June,” analysts at HFI Research indicated.
Crypto and macro investors are watching the call closely. Higher oil prices lift inflation expectations and complicate central bank rate paths.
Risk assets have already shown sensitivity to Iran Hormuz tensions, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading lower on past supply scares.
Even modest supply hits could trigger gasoline shortages during peak driving demand. If Brent overshoots $150, demand destruction becomes the likeliest path back to balance.
Whether the coming weeks confirm Chapman’s call may shape both oil shock dynamics and broader risk markets.
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