Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), and Robinhood (HOOD) shares trade 40% to 56% below their highs. The S&P 500 sat near a record in October, a split the Kobeissi Letter calls a stealth bear market.
Since March 30, 10 stocks have driven 70% of the S&P 500’s gains. That concentration hides damage elsewhere, including crypto-linked equities, whose holders carry losses the headline index does not show.
Why Are Crypto Stocks Stuck in a Stealth Bear Market?
Kobeissi lists 20 technology stocks in bear market territory, led by AppLovin at 65%. Coinbase ranks third at 56%, with Circle at 44% and Robinhood at 40%.
Nvidia alone supplied 13% of the index’s gain. However, Micron and Alphabet also rank among the top contributors while sitting 24% and 28% below their highs.
Mid-October Kobeissi data showed three more Fed rate hikes priced by June 2027. In contrast, markets expected three cuts at the start of 2026.
Circle (CRCL) issues USD Coin (USDC) and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserves. Its shares fell about 11% intraday in September after a Senate CLARITY Act vote stalled the crypto market structure bill.
Robinhood posted record third-quarter revenue of $1.4 billion, yet diluted earnings per share fell 16% year over year.
Can Bitcoin Reclaim $80,000 Before Coinbase Reports?
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to hold its rally above $80,000 and keeps dipping below the level. A US Treasury bond buyback that filled its $6 billion cap on Tuesday failed to lift the price.
Coinbase reports third-quarter results after the close on Thursday. Revenue expectations near $1.2 billion would mark a 36% drop from a year earlier, with analysts forecasting a loss.
Consumer transaction revenue fell 20% year over year to $452 million in the second quarter. In addition, spot trading volume dropped 25% from the first quarter.
Economist Peter Schiff compared narrow breadth last month to 1973 and 1999-2000, which he said preceded 50% drops, Stocktwits reported.
Kobeissi expects the opposite, a sharp rally if energy and rate pressure ease. Still, that outcome would depend on breadth widening beyond the 10 stocks carrying the index.
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