Bitcoin has to climb nearly 20% in four days for the biggest bets on the options market boards to pay off. Traders stacked them anyway.
Roughly $16.07 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options expire Friday. The heaviest bullish positions sit at $90,000 and $100,000. Bitcoin trades near $81,292.
The Money Sits Well Above the Price
A call pays out when the price rises past a set level. A put pays out when it falls. Friday’s expiry holds 121,676 calls against 68,333 puts, Deribit data shows. That works out to a put/call ratio of 0.56. Close to two bullish contracts for every bearish one.
The single biggest call cluster sits at $85,000, about 5% above the current Bitcoin price. Stacks at $90,000 and $100,000 follow. A few reach $125,000, which would take a 54% rally.
The largest put cluster sits at $70,000, a level Bitcoin cleared last week.
Every Call Has a Seller on the Other Side
Here is what the chart does not show. Open interest counts contracts still alive. It says nothing about who is winning. Somebody bought each of those calls. Somebody sold them.
Max pain for Friday sits at $73,000. That is the price at which the largest number of contracts would expire worthless. Bitcoin sits 10% above it.
BeInCrypto reported Monday that Bitcoin hit an eight-month high after $262 million in short liquidations.
Watanabe Says October, MEXC Says Wait
Sota Watanabe founded Astar Network and runs Startale Group, the firm building Sony’s Soneium blockchain. In his opinion, October is poised to be a good month.
Vugar Usi Zade, chief executive of the exchange MEXC, is less sure. Bitcoin shrugged off a Federal Reserve rate hike and the collapse of the CLARITY Act, a US bill that would have set crypto market rules, he said.
Spot Bitcoin funds took in $593 million across Thursday and Friday. Strategy (MSTR) stock rose 17% on the week.
For the fourth quarter of 2026, the market needs multiple episodes to consider a trend reversal.
He named oil market tensions as the likeliest trigger to flip sentiment. ETF flows this week will show who blinks.
Friday settles the bets.
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