Six suspected insider wallets made $1.2 million on Polymarket betting on a US strike on Iran. Blockchain tracing later revealed a connected cluster of accounts that predicted multiple US and Israeli strikes with alarming accuracy.
The incidents point to a deepening pattern of suspected insider trading on prediction markets, where their anonymity and accessibility are increasingly being exploited for profit.
Betting on Iran With Suspicious Precision
Six wallets flagged by the on-chain analytics platform Bubblemaps were funded within 24 hours of placing their wagers. Each specifically targeted February 28 and bought “yes” contracts just hours before the US strike on Iran materialized.
The precision of the bets raised immediate suspicion of access to non-public information.
Bubblemaps traced the funds from one of the flagged wallets, identified as “nothingeverhappens911,” after it moved its profits out of Polymarket. That trail led to another account, “Skoobidoobnj,” through a shared Binance deposit address.
Skoobidoobnj had previously made $100,000 buying “yes” contracts just before two separate surprise attacks on Iran in 2025. The first was Israel’s launch of Operation Rising Lion on June 13. The second came eight days later, when the US joined the conflict and deployed B-2 bombers to strike nuclear facilities in Iran.
Bubblemaps further identified two additional Polymarket accounts connected to Skoobidoobnj. One made $65,000 on the February 28 US strike. Another made $10,000 on Israel’s June 13 attack.
In total, four linked accounts made $240,000 predicting US and Israeli strikes on Iran with what Bubblemaps described as near-perfect accuracy. The larger $1.2 million figure later revealed the total amount all six wallets made on February 28 alone.
The latest findings arrive just weeks after the Iran betting controversy claimed its first legal casualties.
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating Itself
In February, Israeli authorities indicted two citizens, an army reservist and a civilian, for allegedly using classified military data to place bets on Polymarket.
Israeli authorities claimed that the suspects had placed wagers on military operations based on classified information accessed through their duties. The indictment specifically included bets on the timing of Israel’s opening strike on Iran during June’s 12-day war.
The case was the first of its kind, but the underlying concern was not new.
Prediction markets had already drawn scrutiny over suspiciously timed wagers that bore the hallmarks of insider access. In January, a cluster of newly created Polymarket wallets netted over $630,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
The wagers were placed hours before news of his capture broke publicly.
The incidents have renewed debate over whether prediction markets aggregate information efficiently or simply reward those with privileged access.
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