Veteran trader Peter Brandt says the 30-year yield has ended its pullback and could climb to 6.5% to 7%. He calls a drop below 5% unlikely.
The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds sat near 5.35% on Tuesday, below its October high of about 5.67%. Brandt’s target could lift mortgage rates and raise the bar for Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks.
Why Did the 30-Year Yield Bounce From 5.22%?
Brandt said the yield bottomed at 5.22% during the retreat from its October high. That leaves the bounce at about 0.13 percentage point.
The 30-year yield rose from 4.83% at the end of June to above 5.3% by August. A hotter-than-expected October inflation report drove Tuesday’s move, CNBC reported. The 10-year yield briefly topped 5% as well.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments also fueled bets on a hike. Traders now price an 84% chance of a December Fed hike.
What Would 7% Do to Stocks, Mortgages and Bitcoin?
Mortgage rates reached about 7%, a two-year high, when the 30-year yield neared 5.5%. A move toward 7% could push them higher.
Equity valuations face the same pressure. Merrill’s Antony Ghee has flagged a sustained 10-year yield above 5% as the main near-term risk for stocks.
BTC trades near $73,820, down 11.7% over 30 days, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. Bitcoin’s October loss of 7% came as bonds and oil broke their usual patterns.
Washington is pushing back. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled long-dated bond buybacks to $4 billion, yet StoneX noted the 30-year still topped 5.3%.
A 7% yield would exceed the 6.15% average since 1977, Macrotrends data shows. That could reprice mortgages, corporate debt, and every asset benchmarked to the risk-free rate, including bitcoin.
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