Lighter (LIT), the token backing the newly launched decentralized perpetuals exchange, is still finding balance after its airdrop-driven debut. LIT trades near $2.73 after slipping at launch, yet post-listing performance has held better than expected.

Despite fresh tokens hitting the market, the price continues to hover above its post-listing low. Buyers are showing up, but conviction is still thin.

The question now is whether this strength is a real support or just a temporary cushioning before sellers take control.

Capital Flows Signal Early Strength

Early money signals show capital returning during dips.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures big money entering or exiting an asset through volume-weighted pressure, has trended higher on the 15-minute chart while price has trended lower from December 30–31. That is a bullish divergence. It hints that large buyers are absorbing supply even as volatility cools off. And that too when it is common for the post-airdrop sellers to show up.

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Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks buying pressure through price and volume, shows the same behavior: higher highs in MFI while price continues to trend lower, mildly. It suggests dip-buying activity and retail support during the Lighter sell-off.

This dual divergence matters. It shows that selling from airdropped tokens is being met with capital rather than capitulation. Whales entering the ecosystem also validate this strength. Recent blockchain data shows large wallets swapping into LIT after launch, aligning with CMF’s rising trend.

If these capital inflows continue, the Lighter price can aim to rise higher.

If CMF rolls over and drops back under its equilibrium band while MFI fails to hold current momentum (as it’s in the overheated territory), the supportive thesis weakens.

Short-Term Strength Exists, But Needs Confirmation

On a lower timeframe, early structure shows what buyers must defend.

LIT continues to trade above VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) on the 15-minute chart. VWAP reflects real-time fair value, and holding above it signals buyers controlling the intraday trend. Each retest of VWAP, which is around $2.62 (at present), has been met with buying support.

This shows that the lower levels are being bought quite aggressively, something that even the MFI divergence hinted at.

But confirmation is missing.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) on the 1-hour chart, which measures whether volume is flowing with price or against it, remains below a descending trendline. This tells us that capital inflow exists, but volume conviction does not. That shows raw LIT selling pressure is still restricting the upside.

Until OBV breaks the trendline, upside attempts may stall before gaining momentum.

If OBV breaks above its trendline while VWAP defense holds, the structure shifts from reactive to constructive. A close above $3.08 would be the first sign that buyers are ready to challenge higher zones.

Strength above that level could open room for continuation toward $3.25 and even $3.72, which aligns with Fibonacci extension ones above the post-launch high near $2.97.

Lighter Price Levels That Decide The First Real Trend

LIT now sits inside a narrow decision zone, mostly trading between $2.48 and $2.77. Defending $2.62 on lower timeframes (VWAP line) and $2.48 on higher timeframes keeps the bullish setup alive. Clearing $3.08 with OBV confirmation turns the chart from early support into a structure capable of expansion and makes a move toward $3.25–$3.72 achievable if volume follows.

If $2.48 breaks with a 1-hour candle close, the downward projections come in. If CMF and MFI roll over, and OBV remains capped under its trendline, structure flips from supportive to vulnerable. A break below $2.48 exposes $2.38 and $2.07 if post-listing liquidity drains under pressure.

At this stage, buyers are present but not dominant. The bullish case rests on supportive indicators rather than a confirmed breakout structure.

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