Tesla CEO Elon Musk says China will make “a LOT of RAM” in 2028. His post adds a fresh supply threat to a South Korean column warning of memory chip oversupply from 2029.
The timing stands out. Korean chipmakers are posting record profits, yet the column argues the country has only two to three years to build new growth industries.
Why Memory Chip Oversupply Is a Risk for Korea’s Economy
The column ran in Maeil Business Newspaper, a leading South Korean financial daily. It argues the economy now leans heavily on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
That reliance, the writer says, leaves Korea exposed once the boom fades. In the column’s view, memory chip oversupply could hit around 2029, when new production capacity starts running.
Gartner data shows how large the bet has grown. The research firm expects memory revenue of $837 billion in 2026, or 54% of global semiconductor sales. That share stood at just 27% in 2025, and the firm credits rising prices for much of the jump.
However, Gartner still sees tight supply in 2027, even as extra capacity enters the market.
The concern is not new in Seoul either. The Bank of Korea has already called the AI chip trade a financial stability problem.
Could Chinese RAM Arrive Before Korea Diversifies?
Musk shared the column’s summary on X with a one-line reply. He did not say which Chinese companies would drive that output.
Meanwhile, Chinese rival ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) recently unveiled progress on a denser DRAM design. The news dragged on Samsung and SK Hynix shares, which together make up about half of the KOSPI. CXMT already held about 8% of global DRAM revenue in the first quarter, according to Counterpoint Research.
Musk has also praised Micron’s pricing restraint, signaling he is watching memory costs closely.
For now, demand still outruns supply. Gartner even expects memory revenue to cross $1 trillion in 2027.
However, if Chinese output scales up in 2028, memory chip oversupply could start a year earlier than the column expects. Korea’s window to diversify may then prove even shorter.
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