Global money supply across the four largest economies climbed to a record $103.66 trillion in August. Yet Bitcoin (BTC) still trades about 33% below its October peak, and gold is sliding.
The milestone spread quickly on X, where traders framed it as fuel for stocks, gold, and crypto. However, the underlying data tells a more mixed story.
What Is Behind the Global Money Supply Record?
The figure comes from MacroMicro, which tracks M2 across the US, the Euro area, China, and Japan in dollar terms. M2 counts cash, bank deposits, and other easily accessible savings.
Measured in dollars, the total grew roughly 8% year-over-year. At fixed exchange rates, however, growth sits near 4.5%, about a third of its 2021 peak. A softer dollar explains much of the headline.
National figures point the same way. US M2 reached a record $23.34 trillion in August, up 5.7% annually, according to Fed data. Meanwhile, China’s M2 rose 7.5%, while euro area M3 grew 3.5%, the ECB reported. Japan’s M2 slipped slightly in August.
Notably, the Fed is not printing. Its balance sheet has grown only about $141 billion over the past year.
Bitcoin Tracks Money Growth, Not Its Size
Historically, Bitcoin has followed the pace of money growth rather than its level. Its 2017, 2021, and 2025 peaks landed near highs in M2 growth. Negative growth in late 2022 matched the cycle bottom.
A 2024 study commissioned by macro analyst Lyn Alden found BTC tracked global M2’s direction in 83% of 12-month periods. No other asset tested scored higher.
Since late 2025, however, M2 growth has cooled. That trend fits the recent weakness better than the record total. Bitcoin trades near $84,650, up 0.7% over the past 24 hours.
The Price of Money Is Rising
The Fed raised rates to a 3.75% to 4% range on September 16, its first hike since 2023. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation held at 3.4% as oil climbed near $100.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.225%, the highest since 2007, TheStreet reported. Higher yields raise the bar for assets that pay no income. Gold dropped to $4,163, nearly 26% below its January high.
In contrast, stocks have held firm. The S&P 500 closed at 7,743 on Friday, lifted by tech optimism.
Therefore, a rising money supply alone may not lift risk assets. The next signal could come from whether M2 growth reaccelerates before yields ease.
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