Artemis CEO Jon Ma released an open-source Coinbase (COIN) financial model on Thursday. The bull case projects a $300 billion market cap for the exchange by 2031.
The thesis frames Coinbase as the central winner of AI-native finance. It assumes stablecoin scale, agentic commerce revenue, and a shift toward subscription services through 2031.
Stablecoin and Agentic Commerce Drive the Bull Case for Coinbase
Ma’s model assumes total stablecoin supply will reach $3 trillion by 2031. That figure tracks the trajectory Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projected for 2030.
USD Coin (USDC) would capture 30% of that supply. The token is distributed heavily by Coinbase through its Circle partnership.
The bull case also leans on agentic commerce. Artemis estimates AI agents will drive $7.5 trillion in annual spending by 2031. Coinbase would capture one basis point of that flow. The exchange co-stewards the x402 protocol with Cloudflare under the Linux Foundation.
Subscription and services revenue would climb from roughly 40% of total revenue today to 65% by 2031. That mix would lower Coinbase’s exposure to volatile trading flows and widen its base of recurring fees.
“In our bull case, Coinbase does ~$23B revenue in 2031 with ~$10B of net income. At 30x PE that assumes ~$300B of marketcap (6x+ from today),” Ma projected.
Coinbase Restructures Around the Same Thesis
The Artemis model arrived the same week Brian Armstrong reduced Coinbase staff by about 14%. He framed the move as a push to make the company lean, fast, and AI-native.
The exchange flattened its hierarchy and built AI-native pods to manage fleets of agents.
Armstrong has pushed engineers to lift AI-generated code above 50% of daily output.
Coinbase has also launched Agentic Wallets to settle machine-to-machine payments. Both moves mirror the assumptions baked into Ma’s spreadsheet.
Whether Coinbase delivers the 6x upside depends on stablecoin policy, agentic commerce adoption, and USDC holding distribution share against newer entrants.
The bear case in the same model values the company near $70 billion.
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The post Coinbase Could Hit $300 Billion as AI Agents Reshape Finance: Artemis appeared first on BeInCrypto.
