Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss declared the AI trade over on Tuesday, urging investors to rotate into Bitcoin (BTC) and Zcash (ZEC).
The call landed on the day South Korea’s Kospi index closed down 10.84%. deVere Group CEO Nigel Green blames circular financing between Nvidia, OpenAI and Oracle. Tuesday’s actual trigger was narrower, and it points at China.
What Triggered the AI Trade Selloff on Tuesday
The Kospi finished at 6,023.66 after a circuit breaker halted trading for 20 minutes. Samsung Electronics fell 13.4%. SK Hynix dropped 14.7%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost about 4%. Tokyo Electron shed 10.96%, and memory maker Kioxia fell more than 18%.
Two China-specific catalysts drove it. Changxin Memory Technologies, the Hefei-based DRAM maker known as CXMT, closed its Shanghai STAR Market debut on Monday up 466%.
That valued CXMT near 3.3 trillion yuan. It passed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as the most valuable mainland-listed company. Its prospectus put its 2025 global DRAM share at 7.67%, fourth behind Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.
Separately, reports said a Chinese state-backed firm has begun producing immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines. DUV equipment is the bottleneck tool that Western export controls were designed to withhold.
Tuesday reversed a recovery that had held through mid-July. The same chip names had rebounded from a selloff driven by memory valuation fears.
Nigel Green’s Circular Financing Case, Checked Against the Record
Green’s argument centers on who pays whom. Nvidia funds OpenAI. OpenAI buys cloud capacity from Oracle. Oracle then purchases Nvidia chips with the revenue.
“The same dollar gets counted as revenue three times on its way around the loop. This is not demand. It’s an accounting trick wearing a growth story as a costume,” deVere Group CEO Nigel Green stated.
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The loop is real, but three of his supporting figures do not survive a check against primary filings and company statements.
| Green’s claim | What the record shows |
|---|---|
| Nvidia valued at $4.5 trillion | Roughly $5 trillion. Shares fell 5% to $195.44 on July 27 |
| Nvidia committed up to $100 billion to OpenAI | Non-binding letter of intent, later restructured to a $30 billion equity stake |
| Oracle backlog “north of $500 billion” | $638 billion in remaining performance obligations, up 363% year over year |
Nvidia and OpenAI announced the 10-gigawatt partnership in September 2025. CEO Jensen Huang later told Fortune it was “never a commitment.”
The correction cuts both ways. Oracle’s backlog is larger than Green says, and more than half of it traces to a single customer.
OpenAI’s contract with Oracle exceeds $300 billion over five years and starts in 2027. S&P has warned that Oracle could hold long-term data center leases with no exit if that customer stumbles.
OpenAI is on pace for roughly $14 billion in losses this year against about $25 billion in annualized revenue. However, that revenue is up from $21.4 billion at the end of 2025.
Bloomberg reported Nvidia is now assembling more than $750 billion in fresh AI deals. One would backstop up to $250 billion of OpenAI compute leases at a US data center project.
Against this backdop, Cameron Winklevoss urges investors to rotate into Bitcoin and Zcash,
His Zcash position is not new. In April, he argued that investors bullish on AI and quantum computing should also be bullish on the privacy coin.
He also defended Zcash after a June bug in its Orchard shielded pool. The twins have since funded independent protocol work.
Zcash remains up roughly 1,033% over the past year. Its Ironwood network upgrade went live Tuesday.
Schiff Sees a Peak, UBS Sees the AI Trade Maturing
Peter Schiff treats the drawdown as confirmation. He points to SpaceX, now roughly 48% below its $225.64 peak and trading under its $135 June listing price.
Schiff has framed SpaceX stock and bonds as a warning for equities and crypto alike. Its 2056 notes now yield about 7.6%, pricing like junk debt.
That test comes soon. SpaceX reports first results as a public company on August 4, and roughly 911.5 million insider shares unlock on August 6.
UBS disagrees with the peak thesis. The bank told clients the trade is maturing rather than breaking. Cheaper models redistribute compute demand instead of destroying it, in its reading.
Both readings can hold. CXMT’s debut supports Green’s China warning and UBS’s cost-deflation case at the same time.
What Tuesday did not show is a safe haven. Until Bitcoin holds ground on a day equities break, the rotation Winklevoss describes stays a thesis rather than a trade.
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