A $1.75 trillion IPO is about to redefine which space stocks to watch this summer. SpaceX is closing in on the largest IPO ever. The public S-1 is due late May, with the listing slated for late June or early July.
When SpaceX publishes real launch costs and Starlink economics, the entire sector gets repriced against the same yardstick. Three names stand out as the cleanest read-through points.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB)
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) is the closest public comparison to SpaceX, building launch vehicles, spacecraft, and components in-house. The SpaceX IPO matters here.
The S-1 is the SEC document required before going public. SpaceX filed confidentially on April 1, with the public version due late May.
When it lands, SpaceX’s launch revenue, costs, and Starlink margins go on display for the first time. RKLB is the only publicly traded company doing similar work. When investors see SpaceX’s real numbers, RKLB gets repriced against them.
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Fundamentals look strong. Q1 revenue hit $200.3 million (+63.5% YoY), backlog reached $2.2 billion, and liquidity exceeded $2 billion.
The stock fell 7.17% to $78.58 anyway, as profit-taking on a 240% YoY run outweighed a Q2 guidance beat.
RKLB sits inside a rising channel that has held since late November. The recent top was rejected at $94.40 (0.618 Fibonacci). Price hugs the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $78.96.
EMAs weight recent prices most heavily, while the 50-day EMA sits at $75.52.
The last clean break of the 20-day EMA on March 26 produced a 19.31% slide. A repeat opens $70.71, then $62.45 (200-day EMA), then $56.08 (channel floor).
Options lean the other way. The volume put-call ratio sits at 0.53 versus 0.73 at the last -$0.07 print. Open interest holds at 0.77. Traders buy calls into the IPO window despite the miss.
A reclaim of $87.08 opens $94.40 and the breakout zone above $104.81.
Among space stocks to watch, RKLB sets up the cleanest move into the SpaceX listing.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS)
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) builds the only US satellite network that connects directly to standard smartphones. AT&T, Verizon, and FirstNet are anchor partners.
That positioning maps to the part of SpaceX nobody can price yet: Starlink direct-to-cell. When SpaceX’s S-1 publishes Starlink’s subscriber count and revenue per customer, the market gets its first benchmark for ASTS.
BlueBird 7, one of ASTS’s direct-to-cell satellites, failed to reach orbit on April 20. The miss puts the 45-satellite year-end target at risk. ASTS announced a mid-June Falcon 9 launch for BlueBird 8-10, set to overlap with the SpaceX roadshow week.
ASTS closed at $65.35 on May 7, down 7.54%, with earnings due Monday after close.
ASTS has fallen 51.27% from its February 2 high of $129.78. Current support is $63.25. Above price, the 200-day EMA sits at $73.53, the 20-day at $76.20, and the 50/100-day cluster sits at $82.40-$82.50.
Two bearish crossovers loom. The 50-day EMA is closing in on the 100-day, and the 20-day EMA is closing in on the 200-day. A break of $63.25 opens $58.40, then $45.95.
Options lean the other way. The volume put-call ratio dropped from 0.62 to 0.45 since early April, while open interest fell from 0.49 to 0.42. With earnings on Monday and implied volatility at 112.55%, traders bet on a positive surprise.
For ASTS to reset the trend, it needs to reclaim $68.17, $81.90, and $82.40. A move above $104.12 invalidates the bearishness. Among space stocks to watch, ASTS is the higher-risk pick into the SpaceX listing.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR)
Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) builds lunar landers and runs NASA’s Near Space Network, sharing the Artemis program with SpaceX.
The SpaceX IPO angle here is profitability. LUNR is the only listed pure-play stock guiding to positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026. When SpaceX’s S-1 reveals Starlink’s profit economics, the market hunts for the next stock with that profile.
LUNR closed at $24.11 on May 7, down 8.43%. The company guides 2026 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion, almost 5x FY25, with positive adjusted EBITDA. Q1 results land on May 14.
LUNR has held a rising channel since mid-November. A breakout attempt failed on April 22, and the price has weakened since. The recent pullback pushed LUNR below the 20-day EMA at $24.92 on May 7.
The critical floor is $22.71, and the 50-day EMA is at $22.61, just below. Breaking those levels opens deeper losses. The first upside hurdle is $32.21 (0.618 Fibonacci). A clean break sets up a channel breakout.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) measures institutional inflows and outflows. CMF sits at -0.01, just below the zero line. April 1 set the precedent. CMF crossed zero alongside a 20-day EMA reclaim, and LUNR rallied 71.15% in days.
Earnings on May 14 are the trigger. A CMF cross with a 20-day EMA reclaim can replay April 1 into the SpaceX listing. Among space stocks to watch, LUNR offers the cleanest profitability story.
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