This Thanksgiving, long-term bitcoin (BTC) investors can be grateful for many years of positive returns. Despite some short-term complaints about a crabbish 2025, BTC has rallied 450% over the past three years.
Going into this weekend, for investors with some extra time on their hands, a quick review of prior Thanksgiving weekends could be worthwhile to discover any historical patterns during the holiday.
Protos looked back through every Thanksgiving weekend since BTC’s inception. Calculating the asset’s returns from its Wednesday close prior to each Thanksgiving through its subsequent open on Monday, the data is in as to whether BTC has generally rallied or fallen during the 15 prior Thanksgiving weekends.
Percentage changes ranged from a 16% rally during the 2011 and 2015 holidays to a disappointing, 27% decline in 2010.
Of course, BTC was a much smaller and more volatile asset during its early years, so double-digit gains and losses were commonplace.
Indeed, during its first few years on rudimentary exchanges like New Liberty Standard, BitcoinMarket, TradeHill, VirWoX, BTC-e, and MtGox, BTC would frequently gain or lose tens or hundreds of percentage points day-to-day.
As it’s grown in size and liquidity, its volatility has decreased.
Read more: 95% of all bitcoin is now mined and circulating
Does bitcoin normally rally on Thanksgiving weekend?
Historical prices reveal that the average trading action of BTC over Thanksgiving weekend is mixed. Both mean and median returns of BTC over its 15 prior Thanksgiving weekends are as close to zero as anyone could imagine — fractions of 1%.
Moreover, BTC rallied for eight weekends and fell for seven weekends — as even as possible for a 15-year analysis.
Restricting the analysis to the past decade also reveals a perfect, 50/50 split: five Thanksgiving weekend rallies and five Thanksgiving weekend declines.
In summary, Thanksgiving weekend hasn’t been particularly good nor bad for BTC.
Below are the returns of BTC from its 15 prior Thanksgiving weekends.
- 2024: +1.3%
- 2023: +0.1%
- 2022: -1.1%
- 2021: +0.2%
- 2020: -2.8%
- 2019: -1.5%
- 2018: -13.3%
- 2017: +13%
- 2016: -1.7%
- 2015: +16%
- 2014: +2%
- 2013: -5%
- 2012: +1.3%
- 2011: +15.6%
- 2010: -26.5%
- 2009: -10%
Due to reduced business hours, lower trading volume, customary pauses on corporate announcements, reduced banking access, and other factors associated with the US national holiday, the weekend doesn’t have a strong pattern of price movements.
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The post We calculated whether Thanksgiving is good for bitcoin’s price appeared first on Protos.
