On March 6, US President Donald Trump ordered the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and Digital Asset Stockpile.
While the quantity of assets in both funds has risen dramatically due to criminal and civil asset forfeiture, the coin prices of those assets have been falling precipitously.
Specifically, using estimates from Arkham and a date of 30 days after Trump’s executive order as a starting point for calculating returns, the median return across a number of the largest constituents of the SBR and Digital Asset Stockpile whose price is not flat in USD terms over the time period is -10%.
Unfortunately, the precise date as to when these two funds formally came into existence is unclear.
The public has still never received the highly anticipated “full accounting of all government digital assets,” despite its requirement under Trump’s Executive Order.
Moreover, there’s no US government website that itemizes the assets in either fund.
Read more: FOIA reveals US Marshals sitting on at least $1.6B in BTC
Instead, the public has attempted to fill in the void and crowdsource estimates as to which assets might be in the possession of the US government. Arkham, for example, estimates that it possesses $27 billion worth of crypto assets.
Does the US government own 198,012 or 326,588 BTC?
However, there’s wide disagreement over which assets to include. CoinGecko, for example, estimates the US government possesses 325,293 bitcoin (BTC), which roughly matches Arkham‘s and BitcoinTreasuries‘ 326,588 estimate.
In contrast, BitBo estimates a far smaller, 198,012 BTC.
Very few trackers attempt to trace altcoins, making the composition and investment return profile of the Digital Asset Stockpile difficult to determine.
To illustrate, assume the stockpile contains the four altcoins included in Trump’s original, albeit very confusingly worded promise: ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA.
Since April 5 (i.e. 30 days after Trump’s executive order), the returns of those assets are 49%, -11%, 1.7%, and -39%, respectively.
The median return of these four constituents is, therefore, -4.5%.
The price of BTC itself is exactly flat over the same time period, so its disproportionate representation doesn’t skew the results of the other assets.
Estimating a median return for top altcoins in the US stockpile
Using another calculation method, someone might assume the US stockpile contains the assets on Arkham’s dashboard.
Those top assets, excluding BTC- and USD-pegged assets that have remained flat in price since April 5, along with their returns since that date are:
- ETH: 49%
- BNB: 39%
- UNI: 7%
- LINK: -8%
- AAVE: 3%
- SAND: -42%
- RNDR: -46%
- SHIB: -36%
- BAND: -45%
This puts the median return at -10%.
Results can skew even more negatively, depending on assumptions as to which altcoins are included in the Stockpile.
Despite weeks of confusing news leading up to the announcement, including a momentary and quickly reneged promise to add ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA alongside BTC in the reserve, only BTC ended up in the strategic reserve.
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