Polymarket markets reacted quickly to news of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation amid reporting about three affairs, two with employees and one with a Megaspeed exec who may or may not be a Chinese spy.
Protos used the Polymarket API to attempt to better understand exactly how quickly these markets react to this type of news.
Read more: How Alice Huang helped Nvidia with Chinese export restrictions
Polymarket’s market predicting whether or not Huang would resign or be removed by December 31 reacted quickly to both the reporting of the second affair and to the report that the Nvidia board was considering removing him.
Indeed, it seems that looking at the second-by-second data, the market started moving mere seconds after the New York Times piece was published and even quicker after the publication of the Wall Street Journal piece that suggested he may be ousted.
The difference here may simply come down to precision in the timestamps; each only has a timestamp accurate to the minute, and both moved within two minutes.
Read more: LIVE: Jensen Huang resigns from Nvidia after affairs with spy, employee
Nvidia’s press release about its CEO transition landed on GlobeNewswire approximately 31 seconds before the market for Huang’s removal or resignation by November 12 had almost fully digested the news and was trading above 90%.
Within a minute, the market was flirting with its maximum values.
Read more: Jensen Huang’s exit caps a year of wrecked Nvidia predictions
Traders were also participating in markets that allowed them to predict whether or not a third affair would be announced.
This market moved almost simultaneously with accounts on X starting to share the news off the wire.
The market had almost fully reacted to this news before Reuters had even published its story on its website.
In all these cases, these markets quickly integrated the information that was being reported into the valuation of these binary options.
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