Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says Bitcoin’s latest bottom is already in, even as the cryptocurrency remains below a level that historically confirmed recoveries.
Armstrong said in Sept. 10 interviews with Bloomberg and CNBC that he expects Bitcoin to trend higher over the next one to two years as the market approaches its next halving, while calling $400,000 by 2030 a “reasonable target.”
“I personally think we’ve seen the bottom of the Bitcoin price in this cycle,” Armstrong said, framing the view as his own rather than a Coinbase forecast.
The call comes with Bitcoin trading around $77,000, roughly 39% below the record $126,198 reached in October 2025. That leaves Armstrong wagering on a turn in the cycle before Bitcoin has reclaimed either its old high or a technical level that has historically helped distinguish durable recoveries from bear-market rallies.
Bitcoin still has one historical hurdle to clear
The immediate test sits above $80,000, where Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled and where its 50-week moving average has become an increasingly important marker.
Galaxy Research put that average at $81,473 on Sept. 2 and said a weekly close above it would strengthen the argument that Bitcoin’s bear market had ended.
In four of Bitcoin’s five completed bear markets, the first upside break of the 50-week average came after the cycle low had already been established. The exception was the shorter downturn between Bitcoin’s two record highs in 2021.
That history broadly supports Armstrong’s sequencing: a bottom can occur before the market produces clearer confirmation that a new cycle has begun.
Bitcoin has already supplied some evidence for that view.
The cryptocurrency climbed 25.4% in August, rising from $62,899 to $78,852. Most of the move came during the week ended Aug. 23, when Bitcoin gained 23.5%, producing its largest weekly increase in dollar terms on record. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $3.4 billion during the month, their strongest monthly inflow since July 2025.
Galaxy attributed the rally to renewed demand for the debasement trade, policy developments in Washington, short liquidations, and momentum buying. Bitcoin also fell far enough below its previous record to attract investors who viewed the asset as cheap relative to other risk assets trading near their highs.
Some of those forces make the rebound less conclusive. Short covering can accelerate a rally without establishing sustained demand, while momentum buyers can retreat quickly if Bitcoin fails to extend the move.
That puts the weekly close around the 50-week average at the center of the next test. A decisive break would place Armstrong’s bottom call alongside a signal that has appeared near the end of most previous Bitcoin bear markets. Continued rejection would leave the market below a threshold that has historically separated recovery from consolidation.
The $400,000 target depends on a much bigger cycle
Armstrong’s longer-term forecast assumes the rebound eventually becomes much larger than a return to Bitcoin’s previous high.
At roughly $77,000, Bitcoin would need to climb more than fivefold to reach $400,000. The target would also put the cryptocurrency more than three times above its October 2025 record.
Armstrong tied his optimism to Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle and the approach of the next halving, expected around 2028. The programmed event will reduce the block subsidy paid to miners, tightening the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation.
His one-to-two-year outlook places the next phase of the recovery around that period, though Bitcoin still faces nearer-term resistance before investors can test the broader cycle thesis.
The first hurdle sits around the low-$80,000 range. Galaxy’s moving-average analysis makes a weekly break above that zone the clearest technical confirmation of Armstrong’s call, while other analysts have also identified resistance around $80,000 to $84,000 after the recent run-up.
Sustaining that move may depend increasingly on spot demand. August’s ETF inflows helped absorb supply during the rebound, but Bitcoin has since struggled to extend gains beyond $80,000 even as shorter-term momentum indicators improved.
A successful weekly close above the 50-week average would put Armstrong’s bottom call in line with the pattern that followed most previous Bitcoin downturns. Another rejection would leave the market inside the same recovery zone it has occupied since August, forcing investors to wait longer for evidence that the next cycle has actually begun.
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