Ripple’s XRP is priced at $2.15 at press time, gaining over 12% in the last seven days. After starting 2026 on a strong note, the focus has shifted to whether it can reclaim the $2.5 level. This price marks a key technical area that could define the asset’s next move.
$2.50 Level Marks a Historical Turning Point
The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) has acted as a reliable trend marker for XRP. In past cycles — including 2018, 2022, and 2024 — losing this level was followed by a shift in market direction. On October 10, 2025, XRP once again dropped below the 50-week SMA.
Currently, the value of this moving average is close to $2.5, making it an area of interest for many market participants. Analyst Steph Is Crypto noted the importance of this zone. Until this level is regained, traders are cautious about further downside risks.
“A weekly close above $2.50 would open the door for the bull market to resume,” he stated.
Furthermore, ChartNerdTA shared a longer-term comparison between the current setup and XRP’s 2016 structure. At that time, the token formed a double top and dropped below support before beginning a major rally in 2017. That move was also accompanied by a reset of the Stochastic RSI, often used to assess momentum.
According to the chart, XRP is showing a similar structure in 2025, including a double top and a recent momentum reset. “2026 may be a landmark year,” ChartNerdTA commented, referencing the repeating nature of the pattern.
$XRP: If history repeats, 2026 may be a landmark year and one for the record books. Strikingly uncanny formation to 2016 right here. pic.twitter.com/AjMVVJTDoS
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ChartNerd
(@ChartNerdTA) January 5, 2026
Market Cycle Suggests Next Stage of Move
CW presented a view based on a repeating four-phase cycle. The chart marks XRP’s entry into Phase 4, which followed a long period of sideways movement. The model places the first target at the previous all-time high, and a secondary target at $21.5, based on a 6.618 Fibonacci extension.
This same cycle occurred between 2014 and 2017, when XRP moved through similar phases before rallying. The breakout above long-term resistance in early 2026 may suggest the pattern is playing out again.
Meanwhile, CryptoWZRD noted that XRP closed strong on both USD and BTC pairs. “Holding above $2.10 would offer further upside,” he said. XRP recently broke above $2.12 on high volume, with exchange balances remaining low.
ETF demand and falling supply on exchanges may support buyers if momentum holds. Nevertheless, the short-term signs point to a decrease, and traders are closely watching whether XRP can stay above the major support levels.
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