Hyperliquid’s HYPE token needs to grow protocol earnings faster than its supply expands if it wants to hit the $319 price target laid out by Multicoin Capital, according to a breakdown shared by trader Crypto Patel on X today.
The post reframed Multicoin’s original valuation model, arguing that the real question isn’t whether Hyperliquid’s derivatives business keeps growing, but whether that growth can outrun token dilution.
The Math Behind $319
Multicoin’s base case, first published in June, projected Hyperliquid’s derivatives volume climbing from $2.9 trillion in 2025 to $20.2 trillion by 2028.
Apply a 20x multiple to the roughly $8 billion in annual earnings that volume would generate, and you get a $160 billion valuation. Divide that by an adjusted supply of 502 million tokens, and HYPE lands at over $319, more than four times its current price.
Patel framed the real question as, “Can Hyperliquid’s earnings growth outpace token dilution?” According to him, a bigger protocol does not automatically translate into a higher token price if new HYPE keeps entering circulation faster than revenue grows.
A companion chart from RR2 Capital, using data through September 10, layered Multicoin’s 2028 assumptions on top of more recent fee and volume figures, and it showed Hyperliquid currently pulling in about 3.30 basis points on gross perps fees, close to the 3.28 bps Multicoin used in its own model.
It also pegged Hyperliquid’s current share of decentralized derivatives volume at 30%, out of the 32% slice of the total futures market controlled by DEXs.
The scenarios aren’t static, either. Multicoin’s bear case, assuming slower derivatives growth and no meaningful contribution from newer products like HIP-4, puts HYPE closer to $109. Its bull case, built on a 50% CAGR for the derivatives market, gets to $689.
“The bull case depends on Earnings growth, market share, and supply discipline,” Patel wrote.
RR2 Capital shared his concern, pointing out that the risk is “whether earnings can outpace the growing token supply.”
Where Things Stand Now
HYPE has already had a strong year regardless of where the $319 target ends up. As CryptoPotato reported in August, the token hit a new all-time high above $82 late that month while Bitcoin cooled off from its own run.
It has since climbed further, touching $89.60 on September 6, and is now trading around $79, up nearly 38% over the past month and just under 50% in one year.
Meanwhile, Multicoin has been trimming its position even as it publicly backs the long-term thesis, selling 10% of its 4 million HYPE tokens in early September.
HYPE spot ETF flows have also cooled, with a net outflow of about $8 million reported last Friday and total net assets slipping to roughly $434 million from over $480 million earlier in the month as some of that money rotated back out.
The post Hyperliquid’s $319 Target Hinges on Token Dilution: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.
