Ethereum is pulling back below $2.4K after the recent rebound from the $2.2K mark ran into resistance at the level where its multi-month ascending channel broke down. The rejection leaves ETH caught between improving short-term momentum and an unresolved breakdown on the daily timeframe.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index is recovering from deeply negative readings but remains below zero, suggesting that US spot demand has yet to return in force.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, Ethereum spent June through mid-October inside an ascending channel that carried the price from approximately $1.5K toward $2.8K. The October decline hover pushed ETH through the channel’s lower boundary, and the former support area has since turned into resistance. The latest rebound stalled inside the yellow zone around $2.5K, exactly where the channel was lost.
Reclaiming the $2.5K region on a daily closing basis would be the first sign that the breakdown was a deviation rather than a structural shift, potentially reopening the path toward the $2.8K swing high and the supply zone above it. Until that happens, rallies into this area could continue to meet selling pressure from market participants looking to exit near breakeven.
On the downside, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the June–September rally near $2.16K has so far contained the late-October dip. Yet, a daily candle close below it would expose the 0.618 level at $2K, followed by the $1.9K demand zone. This area marks the July–August consolidation that preceded the sharp August rally and overlaps with the 0.702 retracement, forming a notable support confluence.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart offers a more constructive picture. Since the early-October high near $2.8K, ETH had been trading inside a descending channel defined by lower highs and lower lows. Buyers defended the $2.2K demand zone repeatedly in recent sessions before driving a strong impulse that broke above the channel’s upper trendline earlier this week.
The breakout, however, ran directly into the strong $2.5K supply zone, and the price is now retreating below $2.4K. A successful retest of the broken trendline near $2.3K would support the breakout scenario and set up another attempt at $2.5K. Clearing that barrier would bring the $2.7K supply zone into focus.
Conversely, a return inside the descending channel would invalidate the breakout and suggest that the move was only a relief rally within the broader downtrend. In that scenario, the $2.2K demand zone would likely be tested again, and a breakdown there would align the short-term structure with the bearish path on the daily chart.
Sentiment Analysis
The Coinbase Premium Index on CryptoQuant measures the percentage difference between ETH’s price on Coinbase’s USD pair and Binance’s USDT pair. Positive readings typically reflect stronger buying from US investors, who mainly trade on Coinbase, while negative readings point to relatively weaker US demand or heavier selling from that cohort.
Throughout most of the 2025 rally toward approximately $4.8K, the index remained largely positive. Since late 2025, readings have been predominantly negative, interrupted only by brief positive spells, consistent with ETH’s broader decline. The metric recently plunged to approximately -0.21, among its deepest readings on the chart, before recovering toward -0.09 alongside the latest price rebound.
The improvement suggests that US selling pressure is easing, but a reading still below zero does not by itself indicate a return of meaningful demand. A sustained move back into positive territory would add weight to any reclaim of $2.5K, while renewed deterioration would raise the risk of the daily channel breakdown extending toward $2K, which is the most important psychological support level at the moment.
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