Bitcoin (BTC) is set to close the fourth quarter of 2025 with a loss of nearly 22%, marking its weakest Q4 performance since the 2018 market collapse.
The sharp decline has unsettled traders and analysts alike, as on-chain signals, macro pressure, and fading speculative activity point to a fragile phase for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Posts Its Weakest Q4 in Seven Years
The latest quarterly returns data for BTC gathered by Coinglass shows it is currently down by almost 22%. Since 2016, the flagship cryptocurrency has typically posted gains in the fourth quarter, often using the period to recover from summer weakness or extend bullish momentum.
That pattern held firmly in recent years, with BTC climbing nearly 57% in Q4 2023 and almost 48% in Q4 2024, helped by spot ETF optimism and institutional inflows.
The only comparable Q4 weakness occurred in 2018, when Bitcoin lost more than 42% during a prolonged bear market. While the current decline is smaller in magnitude, the structure is similar. According to Coinglass data, 2025 began with an 11.8% decline in Q1, followed by a rebound of nearly 30% in Q2 and modest gains of just over 6% in Q3. That sequence mirrors earlier cycles where mid-year recoveries failed to carry into year-end, signaling demand fatigue rather than a sudden shock.
The concentration of losses in Q4 is also notable. Earlier quarterly gains suggested Bitcoin was holding up reasonably well through most of 2025, but the late-year breakdown points to a shift in market behavior. Historically, such Q4 declines have appeared when speculative interest fades and new capital struggles to replace earlier inflows, a pattern now echoed in on-chain data.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at around $89,000, up by just over 1% in the last 24 hours but down more than 2% over the past fortnight. Price action has remained choppy in recent weeks, with the asset moving within an $85,000 to $90,000 range over the last seven days. While it has gained close to 6% over the past month, the cryptocurrency remains down about 7% on a yearly basis and nearly 29% below its all-time high near $126,000 set in early October.
On-Chain Data and Macro Signals Paint a Cautious Picture
Market observers on CryptoQuant have largely framed the Q4 slide as a continuation of a broader cooling phase rather than a sudden breakdown. Analyst GugaOnChain wrote that Bitcoin is still in a bear market, citing the Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and a negative spread between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages.
On-chain activity has also softened, with daily transaction counts sliding from roughly 460,000 to 438,000 and highly active addresses falling to around 41,500, signaling reduced participation from large traders.
Further insight from XWIN Research Japan shows that Bitcoin is moving through a “stop-and-go” phase following its earlier rebound. The firm linked part of the weakness to global macro conditions, including the Bank of Japan’s December 19 rate increase to 0.75%.
Despite the move being widely expected, lingering uncertainty about future hikes has muted risk appetite, particularly for yen-funded trades tied to crypto markets.
Additionally, leverage metrics suggest much of the excess speculation has already been cleared, with no meaningful rebuild despite price swings. XWIN also pointed out that the Coinbase Premium Index has improved from deeply negative levels but has yet to stay positive, hinting that strong U.S.-led spot demand remains limited.
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