CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has said that he expects Bitcoin’s current cycle to deliver a 3-to-5x rally rather than another 10x-plus parabolic run, followed by a milder bear market than past cycles produced.
His case rests on how much the market has grown, with a larger base of institutional buyers dampening both the euphoric highs and the brutal drawdowns that defined BTC’s early years.
Ki Young Ju’s Case for a Calmer Cycle
The analyst pointed to the PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, as evidence that the extremes are already narrowing, with cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels than before. MVRV never fell below 1 this cycle, he noted, meaning holders as a whole never went underwater even at the lows.
He also cited a rising realized cap and OG whales who have stopped selling, as well as futures whales who built large long positions near the bottom.
“None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed,” he wrote. “Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash.”
Additionally, he argued that the trade-off is what will draw patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money.
CryptoQuant’s own research backs the bullish read: Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average near $80,500 for the first time since March 2023, a level that previously marked the 2019 and 2023 bull markets.
On-chain indicators turned bullish in mid-August, and BTC has since cleared the $76,000-$81,000 zone where long-term holders had been selling heavily. The firm has put the next resistance at $88,000 to $90,000.
Technician Jamie Coutts flagged the same $80,000 area as the market’s biggest cluster of long-term resistance, citing ETF cost basis and long-term holder averages, and noted his volatility breakout model found seven of eight similar setups since 2016 up a median of 41% six months later.
How Bitcoin Got Here
Bitcoin was trading near $86,500 at the time of writing, up 1.5% over 24 hours and 14% in the past week. It had also gained over 12% over the last month, although it is still down more than 23% from where it was a year ago.
That run started after a rough stretch that saw the CLARITY Act fail a Senate vote and the Federal Reserve raise rates for the first time since July 2023.
That pressure pushed BTC down to $75,000 more than once, but it recovered through last week, then broke higher on Monday as ETF inflows accelerated, adding about $7,000 to its price in under a day and pushing past $87,000 for the first time since late January.
Market watchers at Bitfinex believe the next test will land on September 25, when a large options expiry could add volatility, while US real yields near 2.68% remain a headwind for risk assets broadly.
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