Over the past week, bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded, with the price approaching certain crucial thresholds. Despite this rally in the asset’s value, analysts at the crypto research firm CryptoQuant believe the market, led by BTC, has not escaped the bears’ claws.
In a weekly report from CryptoQuant, market experts noted that BTC demand conditions have improved recently. However, they are still weak and have not changed significantly. This substantiates the claim that the market is still in a bearish phase despite bitcoin’s latest rally.
Bitcoin Sees Bear Market Rally
Since November 21, 2025, BTC has risen by approximately 20% to its current levels. The rally follows a 19% decline that confirmed the start of a bear market as BTC fell below its 365-day moving average (MA). The surge brought the leading cryptocurrency near its 365-day MA, currently sitting at $101,000.
Historically, the 365-day MA has acted as a regime boundary with previous bear cycles showing repeated rejections near that level before renewed downward movement. BTC recorded a similar pattern in the 2022 bear cycle, and this time is no different.
The rally in bitcoin’s price comes amid slightly improved but weak demand conditions. In fact, spot demand is still contracting. U.S. spot indicators, such as the Coinbase Price Premium and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), briefly turned positive. The Coinbase premium briefly increased from deep negative territory for the second time since mid-December 2025.
Bitcoin Demand Remains Weak
On the ETF front, there is still no extraordinary activity. These products merely stopped net selling during the rally, after offloading as much as 54,000 BTC over a 30-day period in November 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have not indicated a strong return of U.S. demand or shown sustained accumulation.
Furthermore, apparent demand metrics reveal that Bitcoin spot demand has contracted by 67,000 BTC over the last 30 days and has been in negative territory since November 28, 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have purchased only 3,800 BTC so far this year, compared to 3,600 at the same time last year – levels below thresholds associated with bull-market recoveries.
Meanwhile, analysts say BTC may face increased selling pressure in the coming weeks, as exchange flows have begun to rise after the recent rally. Bitcoin transfers to exchanges have spiked to a seven-day average of 39,000 BTC. Increased flows into exchanges are historically associated with escalating selling activity, so there may be more trouble for BTC ahead.
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