Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp freefall in the past 48 hours, scaring retail investors and raising serious concerns over its future viability. Though its price has improved slightly on Friday, traders are bracing themselves for the next big dip– and how much worse it might be.
Luckily for the crypto industry, this year wouldn’t be the first time that the future seemed dire. In times like these, history is the best anchor for knowing what happens next, which moves to avoid, and for overall assessing just how bad the situation currently is. Many of these answers lie in the 2022 collapse.
The Conditions That Preceded the 2022 Collapse
Though a lot has changed since then, the 2022 crypto winter provided the backdrop for what most in the community believed would be the end of the industry.
The narrative began in 2020, when, over the course of a year, cryptocurrencies grew enormously. Funding poured into the market, driving prices sharply higher until they peaked around November 2021. During that time, Bitcoin rose from around $8,300 to $64,000 over 10 months.
High-yield products were central to the allure some of the leading crypto firms offered at the time. The idea of receiving a generous, guaranteed interest rate on purchases such as Bitcoin or stablecoins was highly attractive.
Yet, the narrative began to dismantle, partly due to broader macroeconomic factors.
The US Federal Reserve had raised interest rates due to persistent inflation, limiting consumers’ access to liquidity. The stock market suffered a deep correction, partially in response to the outbreak of war in Europe.
These factors led crypto investors to withdraw funds from the most speculative assets.
What ensued was a scenario similar to a bank run. But as consumers rushed to withdraw their funds, bigger issues began to appear– ones that caused investors to seriously distrust the industry.
The Domino Effect That Followed
The first shock was the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin in May 2022, when its price nosedived over 24 hours. The event raised serious distrust in its ability to maintain its dollar peg.
According to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Celsius and Voyager Digital, leading centralized exchanges at the time, saw respective outflows of 20% and 14% in customer funds in the 11 days following the news.
Then came the collapse of Three Arrows Capital (3AC). At the time, the hedge fund managed about $10 billion in assets. The generalized plunge in crypto prices and a particularly risky trading strategy wiped out its assets, obligating the firm to file for bankruptcy.
Centralized exchanges suffered even more greatly, incurring another round of steep outflows.
After that came the infamous FTX collapse in November 2022. Outflows reached 37% of customer funds, all of which were withdrawn within 48 hours. According to the Chicago Fed, exchanges Genesis and BlockFi respectively withdrew roughly 21% and 12% of their investments in that month alone.
During 2022, at least 15 crypto-related firms ceased operations or entered insolvency proceedings. The failures revealed structural liquidity weaknesses in several business models, particularly their vulnerability to rapid withdrawals during periods of market stress.
These events underscored an increasingly important lesson: financial promises must be aligned with underlying liquidity, and contingency planning is essential during periods of stress.
Against today’s market backdrop, those lessons have regained renewed relevance.
Why Today’s Bitcoin Behavior Matters
Over the past week, leading cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum fell nearly 30%. This drop wiped out an estimated $25 billion in unrealized value across digital asset balance sheets.
This data comes as global markets sold off sharply this week, hitting crypto, equities, and even traditional safe havens like gold and silver. The synchronized decline points to a broader liquidity shock rather than asset-specific weaknesses.
As a result, traders facing margin calls liquidated their liquid assets first. For crypto, this broader backdrop indicated a market reset rather than a complete loss of confidence. With positive consumer data on Friday reducing near-term macro pressure, Bitcoin saw its price refloat back up to $70,000.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s behavior has signalled something more structural. It hasn’t exclusively reacted to liquidity conditions.
For the past year, Bitcoin has failed to reclaim momentum even on relief rallies. According to previous BeInCrypto analyses, this drawdown is being driven primarily by long-term holders who have consistently sold off their holdings.
That behavior sends a powerful negative signal into the market. Newer retailers have followed their moves closely, understanding that when conviction hodlers sell, upside attempts lose credibility.
Price action, however, is often only the first visible layer of stress. While markets tend to price fear quickly, institutions respond more slowly and more structurally, adjusting operations long before a full-blown crisis becomes evident.
In periods of prolonged uncertainty, these strategic shifts can serve as early warning signs.
Institutions Begin Pulling Back Quietly
Beyond price movements, early indicators of stress are already emerging at the institutional level.
One recent example has been Gemini’s decision to scale back operations and exit certain European markets. The move does not point to insolvency, nor can it be directly attributed to the latest price downturn.
However, it does reflect a strategic adjustment to a higher-compliance environment, illustrating how prolonged uncertainty often prompts institutions to reassess regional exposure and operating efficiency before stress becomes visible in balance sheets or market prices.
Meanwhile, last month Polygon carried out a large internal round of layoffs, dismissing roughly 30% of its staff. The move marked the third time it did so in the past three years.
Historically, similar operational pullbacks appeared quietly in late 2021 and early 2022, well before broader industry failures became visible. Firms began freezing hiring, scaling back expansion plans, and reducing incentives as liquidity tightened. These moves were often framed as efficiency or regulatory alignment rather than distress.
Attention is also returning to digital asset treasuries, where prolonged drawdowns tend to expose balance-sheet sensitivity. MicroStrategy has once again emerged as a bellwether.
MicroStrategy Highlights Early Structural Stress
Bitcoin’s largest digital asset treasury faced renewed market pressure after Bitcoin slid to $60,000 this week. The event pushed its vast crypto treasury deeper below its average acquisition cost and reigniting concerns about balance-sheet risk.
MicroStrategy’s shares fell sharply as Bitcoin extended its sell-off, while the stock’s decline also pushed its market valuation below the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings.
If price volatility persists, such balance sheets will become increasingly reflexive, amplifying both confidence and fragility.
In fact, MicroStrategy has already moved away from its once-unmovable promise to never sell. In November, CEO Phong Le acknowledged for the first time that the company could sell its holdings under specific crisis conditions.
Today’s indicators appear earlier and more subdued, which may make them easier to overlook. Yet their quiet nature may be precisely what makes them significant, offering a glimpse into how prolonged confidence erosion begins to reshape the industry from the inside out.
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