US midterm results favored Democrats as Bitcoin (BTC) edged lower and S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%. Democrat Senators Jon Ossoff and Mark Warner have just won Georgia and Virginia respectivly.
S&P 500 futures reversed an early gain as Kalshi, a prediction market, put Democratic Senate odds near 90%. Traders fear a Democratic sweep could curb data center growth, hitting artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
What Do the US Midterm Results Mean for Futures?
Nasdaq-100 futures lost 0.5%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 252 points, also 0.5%.
Kalshi put Democratic odds of winning the House at 97%, an outcome markets had largely expected.
Investors fear a Democratic majority could bring nationwide data center limits. AI stocks had already pulled back in recent weeks on slowing spending worries.
Futures on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a gauge of expected market swings, climbed to 20.90.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) first jumped double digits after hours on third-quarter earnings that beat estimates. The stock later pared gains to about 4%.
Osaic chief market strategist Philip Blancato said a sweep might not drag the broader market.
“In that scenario of a Democratic sweep when there’s less funding for AI or less support for data centers, I think the rest of the market will do quite well because of how strong earnings have been.”
Philip Blancato, Osaic chief market strategist, via CNBC
Will Bitcoin Follow the Post-Midterm Pattern?
Bitcoin traded slightly lower on the day.
CNBC found the S&P 500 rose after all 11 midterms from 1982 to 2022. The average gain one year out was 13.7%.
Binance Research data showed Bitcoin gaining 54% on average after past midterms, per earlier coverage of Bitcoin midterm election volatility. The sample is small.
If that pattern holds, the election-night dip could fade. A decisive Senate result reshaping AI and tax policy would make that read wrong.
Control of Congress could set rules on data centers and tax breaks. Those rules shape the AI trade, a driver of equity risk appetite that crypto prices may follow.
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