SpaceX Stock Surges 12% as Lockup Overhang Finally Lifts: How High Could It Go in August?

SpaceX stock traded near $128 on Friday, up more than 11%. The rally came one day after the first insider lockup expiration made 911.5 million shares eligible for sale.

The wave of insider selling many investors feared has not appeared so far. An analyst upgrade and aggressive call buying now have traders asking how far the rebound can run.

Why SpaceX Stock Rallied Through the Lockup Expiry

Lockup agreements bar insiders and early investors from selling their shares for a set period after a listing. Rather than one 180-day cliff, SpaceX staggered its restrictions across nine tranches, the first tied to its debut earnings report.

Thursday’s expiration was the first and largest of those windows. It lifted SpaceX’s tradable float from 4.9% to 11.8% of shares outstanding, freeing stock worth roughly $100 billion.

Sellers had plenty of warning. SPCX had slid from its June record of $225.61 to lows near $105 this week. Its debut earnings and the approaching unlock drove the decline. Elon Musk even called the dip an opportunity before the $104 billion share unlock arrived.

That drawdown may have done the selling in advance. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens told Yahoo Finance that discounting was already visible in the price.

“A good deal of the recent slump…is precisely in anticipation of the dilution.”

Shares recovered 4% Thursday as the unlock took effect, then accelerated on Friday. Argus analyst Steven Silver upgraded SPCX from Hold to Buy with a $160 target. He cited early payback on the company’s heavy AI infrastructure spending.

The upgrade landed days after SpaceX’s first earnings beat, which showed revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year.

Wall Street remains split on what comes next. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas framed the expiration as a buying opportunity, describing SpaceX as a potential generational compounder. In contrast, Bank of America’s Ron Epstein warned the added supply would likely weigh on shares near term.

How High Could SpaceX Stock Go in August?

Friday’s tape showed the reversal in full. SPCX dipped to $114.56 in early trading before buyers stepped in, pushing volume beyond 107 million shares by the afternoon.

Options positioning into the day’s expiration leans firmly bullish. OptionCharts.io data shows 1,031,939 open call contracts against 454,896 puts, a put-call ratio of 0.44.

One position stands out. Traders hold 563,419 call contracts at the $330 strike, more than half of all call open interest for this expiry. The block traces back to a $20 million options trade that pays only if SPCX nearly triples. Those contracts will likely expire worthless at the close.

The bullish tilt extends well beyond today. Across the August 14, 21, and 28 expiries, call open interest stacks up between $130 and $160, with the heaviest blocks near $150 and $160. Speculative calls reach as far as $200, $250, and even $450, while put interest thins out above $130.

Short sellers add another layer of fuel. Roughly 219.3 million SPCX shares were sold short as of July 29, worth $24.6 billion. That equals about 34% of the float, so a sustained move higher could force shorts to cover.

The chart below offers cleaner targets. SPCX has broken above the descending channel that defined its slide since mid-June, with the next resistance at $137.69. Beyond that sits the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $151, roughly where the stock began trading at its debut.

Clearing $165.23, the halfway mark of the entire decline, would put the $225.61 record back in view. Still, the relative strength index (RSI) reads 68.37, just below overbought territory, suggesting the bounce could pause before extending.

However, a daily candlestick close below the immediate support at $126.88 could delay the upside, at least for the short term, with the stock risking a retest of the $108.09 low printed before the unlock.

Supply risk has not disappeared. Up to 40% of the company could become tradable by December 8, Musk’s own stake stays restricted until mid-2027. Whether new demand keeps absorbing those shares will decide if $160, or anything beyond it, stays within reach.

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