Solana (SOL) price is trading with a bullish bias, riding the wave of positive sentiment toward altcoins. However, analysts say this may be the calm before the storm as SOL demonstrates weakness across all key pairs.
A prevailing capital rotation is happening, favoring high-fundamental and liquid altcoins. However, could some miss out on the perceived altcoin season?
Analyst Warns Solana Could Mirror LUNA Collapse Amid Multi-Asset Breakdown
Solana has surged over 20% in the past week, and a modest 0.609% in the last 24 hours. As of this writing, SOL was trading for $201.01, with the broader altcoin market reigniting bullish hopes among investors.
However, not everyone is convinced about Solana. While some traders predict a move toward $300 and beyond, one analyst is sounding the alarm.
Technical analyst Gert van Lagen compares Solana’s weakening structure across major trading pairs to the early signs of Terra’s infamous LUNA collapse in 2022.
Gert van Lagen points to Solana’s high timeframe (HTF) breakdowns versus Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and XRP as major red flags.
Highlighting bearish divergences across the board, he says Solana’s current trajectory mirrors a multi-asset bleed. Further, the token was not showing any signs of recovery when measured against its biggest competitors.
With respect to Bitcoin, Solana is showing a downtrend following the 2023 rally, with SOL price stuck below the high-timeframe moving average (MA). Similarly, Solana is showing weakness relative to Ethereum, with the MA curving into a prolonged bear market.
At the same time, Solana is breaking down against Cardano, displaying a similarly bearish MA and SOL/ADA price progressively suffering rejection at the trend. It shows an almost similar outlook with respect to XRP, quelling any recovery signs.
“So what will happen if an asset bleeds against each and every big competitor? It’ll be swapped,” he added.
The dire outlook raises a provocative question on whether Solana could miss out on the anticipated altcoin season.
However, not all analysts share the bearish view. Zyn, a Web3 investor and influencer, described Solana’s current price structure as “a confirmed breakout.” This assessment comes after SOL crossed mid-range resistance.
“Momentum is with the bulls and SOL looks ready for the next leg,” Zyn posted.
The analyst predicts a potential rally to $260 if consolidation above $200 holds.
Solana’s 20% Block Size Upgrade to Boost Throughput, But Reliability Concerns Persist
Adding to the bullish case, Solana is undergoing a significant network upgrade as part of Epoch 821.
According to Helius Labs’ CEO, Solana blocks are increasing in size by 20% in an ongoing protocol-level enhancement designed to boost throughput.
Once completed, the upgrade could push transaction capacity beyond 60,000 transactions per second (TPS), leveraging the QUIC networking protocol and the blockchain’s proof-of-stake (PoS) architecture.
This technical advancement may bolster Solana’s competitive standing, particularly as Ethereum undergoes its own scaling journey post-Pectra.
Yet concerns remain. Solana network’s history of outages and performance instability during prior spikes in demand still hangs over its long-term reliability.
“Not sure how to feel abt this,” one user remarked.
Based on this, Solana sits at a critical crossroads. While the bulls see structural breakouts, increased throughput, and institutional attention as fuel for the next leg up, skeptics warn of deeper systemic weakness lurking beneath the surface.
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