Ahead of reports surrounding the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, a Polymarket trader earned hundreds of thousands of dollars after correctly betting that the event would occur by the end of January. The unusually well-timed wager quickly drew attention.
Subsequent blockchain analysis pointed to potential links between the account and several wallets bearing names similar to Steve Witkoff, co-founder of World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and current US envoy to the Middle East. While no definitive evidence has emerged, the findings have raised broader questions about possible insider access.
Well-Timed Polymarket Bet Raises Questions
Last week, a Polymarket user placed over $32,000 across four separate bets predicting that the US would capture Maduro before February. After the outcome materialized, the bettor earned over $400,000 from the wagers.
Digging deeper into the account, on-chain analyst Andrew 10 GWEI uncovered on Sunday a series of irregularities.
According to the researcher, the Polymarket account was funded by two wallets that showed minimal activity. Both wallets received funds from Coinbase and deposited them directly to the prediction market platform. No other significant transactions were recorded.
One of the wallets involved domain names resembling “Steven Charles,” drawing parallels to Witkoff. However, no evidence shows that Witkoff owns or controls the wallets.
Nonetheless, the unusually precise timing of the bets and the newness of the account raised alarms regarding insider trading and the possible proximity to politically connected individuals.
The scrutiny also comes as WLFI’s token benefited from the geopolitical developments tied to Venezuela. Following reports of Maduro’s capture, WLFI surged roughly 11%. On-chain data also showed a sharp rise in holder profitability and renewed trading activity.
The case represents only the latest in a series of other prediction market bets linked to Maduro’s capture.
Insider Trading Concerns Spur Action
A separate analysis by Lookonchain found that two additional wallets appeared several days in advance, alongside the bettor who secured $400,000 in winnings.
Taken all together, the insiders netted a combined profit of $630,484. Based on these observations, Lookonchain said the wallets’ trading behavior strongly indicated access to non-public information.
These circumstances prompted lawmakers in Washington to push legislation that would close regulatory loopholes that enable insider trading on prediction markets.
In particular, US Representative Ritchie Torres confirmed plans to introduce legislation barring federal officials and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts when they hold or could access material nonpublic information through their roles.
The bill, known as the Public Integrity in Financial Predictions Market Act of 2026, has not yet been formally introduced.
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