Polymarket traders are giving Trump’s Iran ceasefire deadline just a 3% chance of success, based on over $103 million in live trading volume. That single number captures everything about where market sentiment stands right now.
The numbers send a clear message: the crowd sees no deal arriving on Trump’s timeline.
The Crowd Has Already Decided: No Deal Tuesday
Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal brokered primarily by Pakistan, with Egypt and Turkey also involved as mediators. Tehran countered with its own 10-point plan, demanding a permanent end to the war instead. Trump dismissed the Iranian response as insufficient and insisted that his Tuesday deadline was final.
Polymarket’s probability curve shows ceasefire odds rising only slowly across future dates. Traders put the chances at 15% by April 15 and 29% by the end of April. The window stretches to 59% by June 30 and 76% by the end of December.
A separate Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz shipping paints an equally grim picture. That market assigns just 14% odds to traffic returning to normal levels by April 30. The contract has dropped more than 51 percentage points since it first opened for trading.
Oil Shock Meets Crypto: The Bill Is Coming Due
The ongoing war has pushed oil prices sharply higher as the strait remains effectively shut to normal traffic. Polymarket’s separate “Will WTI hit $120 in April?” contract now sits at 77%, a stark reflection of how traders see the energy crunch playing out. Both markets together paint a picture of a world where the war drags on, and oil stays expensive.
Polymarket’s crowd is betting that Tuesday’s deadline will pass without any breakthrough agreement. The ceasefire contract’s 3% odds have barely moved even as mediators worked through the weekend. Until that number shifts decisively, prediction markets say the conflict has much further to run.
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