Oil is climbing toward its yearly high, and the timing could hardly be worse for financial markets. Wall Street is already struggling, Bitcoin has fallen sharply, and investors now face another threat: a renewed US war with Iran after the midterm elections.
Brent crude touched $117.42 per barrel on Friday, October 23, its highest since April. Here are the latest catalysts:
- The immediate trigger was fresh attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi Aramco evacuated its headquarters as fighting intensified.
- An oil spill near the United Arab Emirates added to concerns about shipping security.
- The bigger concern comes from Washington. The US and Israel have reportedly prepared plans for renewed strikes against Iran, potentially targeting energy infrastructure after the November 3 elections.
The White House says no attack will happen before the vote. Military planning does not guarantee strikes will follow.
Why Are Stocks and Bitcoin Falling?
Thursday offered a warning. The Nasdaq plunged 2.6%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.2%. Bitcoin dropped toward $81,400 as crypto liquidations approached $441 million.
Concerns over enormous AI spending triggered much of the technology selloff. Rising oil prices added another problem.
More expensive energy pushes inflation higher, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive interest rates. That threatens corporate earnings and makes speculative assets such as Bitcoin less attractive.
Friday’s reaction remained mixed, with the Nasdaq recovering slightly while the Dow declined.
Will the Midterms Bring Another Market Crash?
History offers some reassurance. According to MSCI, US stocks gained an average of 12% in the six months following the past 13 midterm elections.
However, this year’s biggest uncertainty could emerge after voting ends.
Renewed strikes against Iran could push oil beyond $120 and toward its yearly peak, raising the risk of another inflation-driven selloff. De-escalation could ease oil prices and support a recovery.
For now, the next direction of stocks and crypto may depend more on what happens in the Middle East than who wins Congress.
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