The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has delivered one of the biggest shocks to the global gas market in recent years. Gas prices in Europe and Asia have surged by more than 70%, and analysts say this may be just the beginning.
Experts consulted by the BeInCrypto editorial team warn that high gas prices risk persisting throughout all of 2026, and for European industry, this could trigger a new wave of deindustrialization.
Qatar Trapped
Qatar has emerged as the primary victim of this crisis. Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, explains the scale of the problem:
“Qatar has completely halted gas production because there is nowhere to put it. There are no underground storage facilities, and storing it in liquefied form is pointless: you have to maintain a temperature of -162°C and spend energy doing so. It makes no sense.”
The consequences extend far beyond gas alone. Along with production, output of gas condensate, helium, propane, butane, and ethane has also stopped.
The price of helium, according to Yushkov, has already doubled, and Qatar is the world’s second-largest producer of the rare gas. The entire gas-chemical sector has also ground to a halt, including fertilizer production.
Unlike the region’s oil producers, who managed to pump oil into storage and will be able to quickly resume exports once the strait reopens, Qatar faces a long recovery of its gas capacity:
“Plants that are undamaged will take at least two weeks to reach full capacity, while damaged ones could take several more months to repair.”
Europe’s Problems
Approximately 80% of Qatari LNG has traditionally been directed to Asian markets. However, as Yushkov explains, the Asian and European gas markets function as communicating vessels, and prices have risen across the board.
The seasonal factor makes the situation worse:
“We are now at the end of the heating season, the remaining gas in underground storage is already very low — gas needs to be purchased for injection, and prices are currently high. The longer countries delay purchasing, hoping for a price drop or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the more they will need to buy and inject per day later on.”
This creates a risk that high gas prices will persist throughout 2026. Kirill Bakhtin, head of the Russian equities analytics center at BCS World of Investments, also points to the long-term outlook for rising gas prices:
“If the conflict drags on for even a few months, the gas price forecast has upside potential not only for 2026 but also for 2027, given the currently low fill levels at consumer underground storage facilities.”
The industrial consequences for Europe, according to Yushkov, could be systemic:
“High prices mean fairly expensive electricity, heating, and everything else that is produced from gas. Most importantly, the cost of goods manufactured in Europe using expensive gas will make those goods uncompetitive on the global market. Europe could face a new round of deindustrialization.”
Russia’s Trump Card
Against the backdrop of gas market tension, the Russian president proposed considering the withdrawal of Russian LNG from the European market. Yushkov considers this statement strategically well-timed:
“The tension on the European gas market is already very high. When the president even threatens Europeans that we might prematurely halt our LNG supplies, it rattles the market — we are the second-largest LNG supplier.”
Europe had been counting on fully filling its gas storage by January 1, 2027, the date when a ban on Russian LNG imports takes effect. Now that plan is under threat even at the stage of preparing for the heating season.
At the same time, unlike pipeline gas, LNG is easy to redirect. As Yushkov explains:
“LNG will go to Asian markets — to India in the summer, to China via the Northern Sea Route. Pipelines cannot be rerouted: when gas supplies to Europe were halted, we simply cut production — which is bad for the budget. LNG is more flexible in this regard.”
No final decision on leaving the European market has been made yet, the analyst adds.
What This Means for Investors
Against the backdrop of all these events, Kirill Bakhtin draws attention to the balance of power among Russian gas companies:
“NOVATEK shares, from the perspective of developing supplies from Arctic LNG 2 in the medium term, look more attractive than Gazprom shares, which could lose the EU market by the end of 2027.”
Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the analyst takes a cautious position: under the base-case scenario of BCS World of Investments, the outlook on NOVATEK shares remains neutral.
As of this writing, NOVATEK’s NVTK stock was trading for $1,412, after recording a new local top above $1,476.
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