Multiple prediction markets show a growing belief that the Federal Reserve won’t cut US interest rates next month. Recent FOMC notes led to diminished hopes, but faith in a cut is still the majority position.
Moreover, a few economic signals are sparking fears that these cuts might not improve short-term prospects. This is a very uncertain situation, and it’s difficult to see how crypto could react.
Crypto’s View on Rate Cuts
As President Trump keeps repeatedly pushing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut US interest rates, the crypto industry is losing its hope that they’ll happen any time soon.
Yesterday, the FOMC released the minutes of its July meeting, and the community anticipated that tariff woes had substantially changed the Fed’s position.
The minutes revealed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% in July. However, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed the decision, favoring a 25 basis point cut instead.”
The next opportunity is 27 days away, and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are both reporting diminished hopes of a September cut. Believers still represent a majority, but it’s becoming quite a slim one.
The Big Picture for America’s Economy
So, what does this mean for crypto? Although the industry has spent most of the year hoping for rate cuts, markets have moved on and diminished their expectations several times.
However, with US stocks opening in the red today, this situation might be different.
Discouraging economic signals like this month’s US Jobs Report have fueled fears of a recession, but nothing substantial has materialized yet.
Ironically, increasing economic uncertainty may actually impede the Fed’s available toolkit for fixing potential crises. That is to say, the situation is so unsteady that Powell’s future rate cuts might not help matters:
This situation is highly uncertain, and it’s impossible to predict how US policy, global markets, and crypto can intersect. Several scenarios are possible: AI turmoil could precipitate larger problems, the situation could improve, crypto could outperform TradFi markets, or unexpected things could happen. It’s all very fluid.
One thing seems more steady, though: the crypto industry isn’t pinning its economic hopes on an impending rate cut. If it happens, it’ll be influential, but optimism is low and declining.
The post Fed Rate Cut Optimism for September Continues to Fade appeared first on BeInCrypto.
