Copper price climbed toward $6.80 per pound on Tuesday, about 2% below its September record. Easing fears of another US rate hike and fresh mining disruptions in Chile are driving the move.
On the London Metal Exchange, a major global metals market, copper price rose 0.5% to about $6.63 per pound. That puts prices roughly 17% higher than at the start of 2026, showing how sharply the metal has gained this year.
Fed Hike Fears Ease as Rate Odds Shift
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates by 25 basis points in September, its first hike since 2023. The decision lifted the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
Traders now see a smaller chance of another increase this month. FedWatch data shows an 80.6% probability that the Fed holds rates at its October 28 meeting.
A pause would ease pressure on industrial metals, which tend to struggle when borrowing costs rise. However, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said further hikes before the end of 2026 remain possible.
Mine Disruptions Tighten Copper Supply
A mudslide hit the open pit at Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile on Sunday, killing two contractor workers. Codelco partially halted operations and blamed heavy rainfall.
El Teniente is the largest mine of Codelco, the world’s top copper producer. A collapse at the same site killed six miners in July 2025.
Meanwhile, Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, briefly halted operations in September. The union at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine says its strike will weigh on output from November.
In Indonesia, Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine runs at about 67% of normal capacity. Full recovery is not expected before the end of 2027.
As a result, Morgan Stanley expects a copper deficit of about 600,000 tons this year. These shortages fueled the rally to a record in September.
Long-term demand adds to the bullish case. Ivan Bebek, CEO of Coppernico Metals, said copper demand could jump 50% by 2040.
Copper Price Forecast
Copper’s recent price movements suggest the rally could continue, with $7 per pound emerging as the next major target.
Since late June, copper has repeatedly bounced back whenever prices have fallen toward a rising support line. Its average price over the past 100 trading days has also helped prevent deeper declines.
Both indicators now point to $6.55 as an important level where buyers could step in again.
Meanwhile, copper has climbed back above $6.70, a price it struggled to break earlier this year. The next challenge is September’s record high near $6.95.
If copper breaks that record, $7 could be the next target, representing a gain of about 3% from current levels.
What Could Send Copper Prices Lower?
Despite the positive trend, there are signs that the rally may be losing strength.
Copper’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying and selling momentum, is around 55. This suggests buyers still have an advantage, although momentum has weakened since August.
The chart also shows copper trading within a narrowing upward range. Such patterns can sometimes signal an approaching price correction.
If prices fall, $6.55 is the first major support level to watch. A break below that could push copper toward $6.31.
The next major test comes on Wednesday, October 14, when the US releases its latest inflation figures.
Higher-than-expected inflation could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, potentially hurting copper prices. Softer inflation could ease those fears and help copper challenge its previous record.
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