Bitcoin (BTC) returned above $80,000 for the first time in three months, yet analysts are reading the rally in opposite directions, splitting views between a bullish stress test and a setup for further declines.
The disagreement spans participation, profit flows, and spot dynamics. Each analyst sees the same $80,000 move, but their conclusions about what comes next pull in different directions.
Why Bitcoin’s Rally Raises Concerns
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Santiment flagged what it called a striking disconnect. Daily active Bitcoin wallets sit near 531,000 while new wallet creation hovers around 203,000.
Both figures are at 2-year lows, even as BTC has climbed 22% over the past five weeks.
“Historically, on Santiment’s data, price increases that aren’t supported by growing on-chain participation tend to be fragile. There’s simply less “buying fuel” behind the move,” the post read. “Paradoxically, 2-year lows in network activity can actually signal that Bitcoin is coiled for a much bigger move upward. Activity bottoms often mark the end of apathy, not the continuation of it.”
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Michael Nadeau, founder of The DeFi Report, also highlighted a bearish signal. Nadeau noted that the BTC Spot Volume Delta flipped positive for only the second time this bear market.
This suggests that buyers are turning more aggressive than sellers in the spot market. Even so, he noted that whenever the signal has flipped positive in previous bear markets, a fresh correction has tended to follow after.
“In ’22, there were four significant ‘flushes’ in which sellers controlled price discovery. The third flush occurred a little over 7 months into the bear market, and the final flush occurred 12+ months into it. We’re currently entering the 7th month of the current bear market. We just saw a wave of short liquidations push the price into key resistance, and funding rates just flipped positive,” he stated.
The Bitcoin Bull Case at $80,000
On the other hand, Santiment recorded net realized profits of $207.56 million on Sunday, the highest monthly spike. It reads the surge as a stress test, since BTC cleared $80,000 despite heavy supply.
“When a high level of profit taking occurs while markets are on the rise, it’s generally a bullish signal that the uptrend can continue,” the firm wrote.
Darkfost reinforced the bullish read. Short-term holder (STH) inflows in profit measured around 13,000 BTC, and weekly STH inflows on Binance reached 36,500 BTC. The figure ranks among the lowest of the cycle.
“In the absence of particularly strong demand, this contraction in sell-side pressure nonetheless supports the case for BTC consolidating above the $80,000 level,” he posted.
Finally, analyst Plan C widened the lens. The analyst frames market movements as part of a Bitcoin supercycle that began at the November 2022 low of $16,000. He projected a peak of over $250,000 in late 2027 to early 2028.
For now, $80,000 sits at the center of four competing narratives, and price action from here will decide which of these theses gets validated and which gets rewritten.
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The post Bitcoin at $80,000 Splits Analysts Between Bullish Setup and Coming Flush appeared first on BeInCrypto.
