Crypto markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate decision on September 16, just a day after the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate.
XRP dropped nearly 10% toward $1.30, Bitcoin slipped below $76,000, and more than $300 million in leveraged positions got liquidated within minutes.
Why the CLARITY Act Vote Failed
The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15, falling short in a 49-50 procedural vote that required 60 votes to pass.
Tuesday’s vote was never a final passage vote. Failure stalls formal consideration for now, but it does not permanently kill the CLARITY Act, which sought clearer jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC for digital assets.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis said he will keep working to advance the legislation despite the setback. Meanwhile, Polymarket odds for passage in 2026 fell from roughly 30% to just 5% within a single day.
Not everyone agrees with this setback. Senior analyst Eric Balchunas offered a starkly different assessment, saying Tuesday’s failure to reach cloture means the legislation is all but dead.
Why Does Wednesday’s Fed Decision Matter More Now?
With legislative momentum stalled, attention has shifted entirely to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision today, along with updated projections and remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh.
Markets currently price roughly a 92.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, which would push the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the first increase since 2023.
Treasury yields near 5% already pressuring risk assets broadly. Analysts widely expect the hike itself to matter less than Warsh’s tone during the press conference that follows the announcement.
A hawkish surprise could extend Tuesday’s losses into a deeper pullback. A softer tone, by contrast, could ease pressure across both Bitcoin and altcoins heading into the week’s close.
What Are Traders Watching Right Now?
Trader Michaël van de Poppe views current Bitcoin price levels as a possible sweep of recent lows, expressing continued interest in buying dips near $74,000-$75,000.
Crypto Rover and others note that a delivered hike is largely priced in, so the reaction depends on whether Warsh sounds more hawkish than expected.
Community and technical voices note that XRP is more sensitive to macro news; it led the sell-off and could remain volatile if the Fed turns hawkish. Many expect short-term pressure but see the long-term utility and institutional interest intact. Support near $1.00–$1.10 is being watched closely.
The combination of regulatory disappointment and a likely rate hike creates near-term caution. A softer-than-expected tone from the Fed could ease pressure on both assets, while aggressive guidance risks another leg lower.
Investors will focus on Warsh’s forward-looking remarks and whether Bitcoin can defend $75,000 and XRP can stabilize above $1.30.
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